Berenberg嘅「反彈即沽」論點,核心係奢侈品行業三十年超級周期已完結,中期需求增長或只得每年2%至3%,低過歷史約6%水平 [3][4]。 主要逆風包括中國消費受壓、入門及偶爾買名牌嘅消費者被加價擠壓、Gen Z參與度不足,以及二手、pre owned同dupe平替市場擴大 [4][53][56]。

Create a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What are Berenberg’s main reasons for urging investors to sell rallies in European luxury stocks, and how do issues like slowing luxury dema. Article summary: Berenberg’s case is that European luxury is not in a normal cyclical pause but in a structural demand slowdown, so rallies should be sold rather than chased. The bank sees weaker China, squeezed aspirational consumers, l. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated. Reference image context from search candidates: Reference image 1: visual subject "### Bloomberg. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news" source context "Sell Any Rally in Luxury Stocks as Growth Slows, Berenberg Says - Bloomberg" Reference image 2: visual subject "First
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Berenberg嘅「反彈即沽」論點,核心係奢侈品行業三十年超級周期已完結,中期需求增長或只得每年2%至3%,低過歷史約6%水平 [3][4]。
Berenberg嘅「反彈即沽」論點,核心係奢侈品行業三十年超級周期已完結,中期需求增長或只得每年2%至3%,低過歷史約6%水平 [3][4]。 主要逆風包括中國消費受壓、入門及偶爾買名牌嘅消費者被加價擠壓、Gen Z參與度不足,以及二手、pre owned同dupe平替市場擴大 [4][53][56]。
淡友同好友分歧在於2026年復甦力度:HSBC看好中國消費者重新投入,UBS估歐洲奢侈品2026年有機銷售增長5%,但Berenberg認為估值仍未反映低增長新常態 [1][5][11]。
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開啟相關頁面Berenberg analysts are telling investors to sell any rally in luxury stocks, arguing that the sector is still facing entrenched growth challenges rather than a clean return to momentum. The team led by Nick Anderson, who called the end of the luxury sector'...
Investing.com -- The luxury industry is facing a structural shift rather than a temporary soft patch, Berenberg analysts say, arguing that optimism around a creative reset and pricing adjustments misses the core issue: demand, not supply. The broker notes t...
Berenberg says luxury boom is over as it downgrades LVMH ... The luxury sector’s three-decade boom is over, according to Berenberg analysts whose downgrade of LVMH coincided with the stock’s biggest surge since 2001. “Luxury is at an inflexion point,” the t...
Berenberg最核心嘅講法係:市場太著眼於供應面,例如新創意總監、品牌翻新、產品線調整同加減價策略,但低估咗需求轉弱。Investing.com報道指,Berenberg認為市場對創意重置同定價調整嘅樂觀,忽略咗真正問題係需求,而唔係供應 [2]。
FashionNetwork報道,Nick Anderson帶領嘅Berenberg團隊將LVMH由「買入」降至「持有」,並將Gucci母公司Kering由「持有」降至「沽售」,同時指出行業面對結構性需求問題,三十年奢侈品超級周期已經完結 [3]。
呢個判斷解釋咗點解Berenberg叫投資者趁反彈沽貨。若然市場仍然用過去高增長、高估值嘅框架去睇奢侈品股,當增長進入較慢新階段,估值就有下調空間。GuruFocus報道,Berenberg認為相對過去九年水平,行業平均估值仍有25%至35%下行空間 [1]。
Berenberg亦提到,2025年將會係三十年內第三次全球奢侈品收入連續兩年下跌,之前兩次分別發生喺科網泡沫爆破同全球金融危機期間 [2]。唔同之處係,今次整體股票市場仍處於高位,令奢侈品行業嘅疲弱更值得留意 [
2]。
中國消費係今次爭論嘅關鍵。Berenberg認為,2020年代奢侈品行業其中一個主要特徵,會係中國消費受限制 [4]。MarketScreener引述Berenberg報告指,中國係2026年奢侈品前景嘅核心,該行亦將中國家庭面對嘅壓力,類比為物業市場轉弱後嘅「資產負債表衰退」 [
7]。
不過,數據唔係單邊悲觀。Reuters報道,LVMH 2025年第三季銷售按年升1%,其中中國本土市場轉為中至高單位數正增長;結果公布後,LVMH股價升14%,並帶動整個奢侈品板塊反彈 [19]。
問題係,反彈唔等於全面翻身。FashionNetwork提醒,押注中國快速復甦嘅投資者可能會失望,因為不少中國消費者仍然面對樓市壓力、青年失業同信心疲弱等問題 [21]。換句話講,中國有「脈搏」,但未必即刻回到昔日高速增長。
Berenberg特別擔心aspirational spending,即係唔一定超富裕、但會為某些名牌產品儲錢或偶爾入手嘅消費。該行形容呢類消費正長期受壓 [4]。
Reuters相關報道指,LVMH業績公布前,投資者希望公司採取更多行動,重新吸引被大幅加價嚇走嘅消費者 [20]。呢點好重要,因為疫情後奢侈品行業好大部分增長,來自加價同消費升級;如果入門客開始抗拒,收入增長就更難維持。
Bain嘅大市數據亦反映行業已經進入較溫和階段。Bain估計,2025年全球整體奢侈品消費為1.44萬億歐元,按現行匯率計較2024年跌1%至3%;按固定匯率計,表現介乎跌1%至升1% [54]。呢個唔係崩盤,但更似係疫情後狂熱退潮後嘅正常化,而唔係快速重返舊牛市。
Z世代對時尚同奢侈品仍然重要。McKinsey指出,Gen Z消費增長速度係之前世代嘅兩倍,並可能喺2029年前超越嬰兒潮一代;背後包括估計15萬億至20萬億美元財富將轉移至Gen Z同千禧世代 [49]。
但問題在於,傳統名牌未必可以自然將呢批年輕消費轉化成全價新貨銷售。Berenberg明確將Gen Z參與度不足列為行業結構性逆風之一 [4]。
同一時間,替代渠道快速壯大。BCG同Vestiaire Collective估計,現時二手時裝同奢侈品市場規模約2,100億至2,200億美元,到2030年或增至3,200億至3,600億美元,年增長率約10%,大約係一手市場嘅三倍 [53]。
EY 2025 Luxury Client Index亦顯示,中國內地有50%受訪客戶尋求更靈活付款選項,25%尋求dupes等高質素替代品;dupe即係模仿名牌設計但唔使用該品牌標誌嘅產品 [56]。同一研究亦指,54%受訪客戶願意直接向奢侈品牌購買pre-owned二手產品 [
56]。
所以,年輕消費者未必係拒絕奢侈品,而係更重視入場方式:二手、保值、轉售、品牌認同,甚至係有名牌感但唔付全價嘅選擇。
歐洲奢侈品股其實已經承受唔少壓力。Reuters相關報道指,截至2025年7月,LVMH股價年初至當時跌近27%,Kering跌15%;相反,主要服務更富裕客群嘅Hermès同Richemont則大致持平 [18]。
Berenberg 2026年1月發表悲觀行業報告後,MarketScreener報道指,Kering跌3.74%,LVMH跌2.81%,L’Oréal跌2.36%,Hermès跌2.43%,Burberry跌近4%,Richemont亦跌近3% [8]。
但股價跌過,唔等於已經便宜。Berenberg嘅估值論點係,市場價格仍然嵌入太多舊增長周期嘅假設 [1]。同時,行業內部分化明顯:面向超高端富裕客戶嘅品牌,表現可能比更依賴入門及中產升級消費嘅品牌硬淨 [
18]。
如果單睇歐洲核心名店街,市場未似需求崩塌。Cushman & Wakefield指出,歐洲奢侈品街道租金喺2024年仍然上升;到2024年底,奢侈品街道租金平均較2018年底高3%,而非奢侈品高街租金就仍低10% [33]。
Savills研究亦指,約50%歐洲核心奢侈品街道未來一年可能見到租金增長,原因係核心地段供應緊張,同品牌對黃金位置仍有需求 [37]。
不過,租金升勢已變得更挑剔。Savills報告指,全球27個核心奢侈品目的地嘅平均核心標價租金,2025年只升0.9%,遠低過2024年6.6%升幅 [37]。對品牌嚟講,旗艦店位置稀缺可以保住曝光,但如果Berenberg所講嘅低增長需求情境成真,固定租金成本就會更難消化 [
4][
33][
37]。
分歧唔係有冇復甦,而係復甦有幾快、有幾實淨。HSBC喺2025年9月將LVMH同Kering評級由「持有」上調至「買入」,理由係預期中國消費者會重新投入,而兩間集團有機會喺2026年恢復較理想、具盈利質素嘅增長 [5]。
UBS亦較樂觀,預測歐洲奢侈品行業2026年有機銷售增長5%,扭轉2025年持平表現;每股盈利預期升12%,此前一年則跌12%,而轉勢關鍵在於中國需求穩定 [11]。
Berenberg嘅反駁係:舊公式已經冇以前咁穩。中國未必再係保證高增長引擎,入門名牌客對價格更敏感,而Gen Z亦未必用上一代方式同傳統奢侈品牌互動 [1][
4][
20]。喺呢個框架下,股價反彈更似離場機會,而唔係超級周期重啟嘅證明。
Berenberg嘅「趁反彈沽貨」論點,喺以下情境最有力:中國只係溫和改善、入門消費者繼續對價格敏感、年輕客將部分預算轉去二手、pre-owned或者dupe平替市場 [4][
21][
53][
56]。
中國新能源車出口首次跑贏燃油車:4月數據點解重要?
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