GSR 模型大洗牌：Solana 躍居核心持倉之首，比特幣權重砍至新低

On August 12, 2026, crypto market maker GSR updated its Core3 model portfolio, making Solana the largest position while cutting Bitcoin to its smallest weight among the three tracked assets. The rebalance was driven by short-term relative momentum signals — Solana's strong weekly performance and a shift in GSR's alpha indicators — rather than longer-term fundamentals, against a backdrop of compressed volatility across all three assets .

New Allocations and Weights

Asset	New Weight (Aug 12)	Previous Weight (Aug 5)	Change
Solana (SOL)	43.6% (some sources cite 43.7% in written commentary)	36.5%	+7.1 pp
Ethereum (ETH)	39.5%	44.1%	-4.6 pp
Bitcoin (BTC)	16.9%	19.3%	-2.4 pp

The weights total approximately 100% (reported as 99.9% due to rounding) . Most sources report SOL at 43.6%; CryptoRank.io and others use 43.7%, reflecting a minor rounding difference in GSR's reporting .

Price Momentum & Volatility Data Driving the Shift

GSR’s Core3 model is explicitly designed to follow short-term relative momentum, not long-term fundamentals . Key data points at the time of rebalance:

• 7-day returns (leading into Aug 12): Solana was the best weekly performer at +2.98%, while Bitcoin fell -1.02% and Ether slipped -0.20% . (For context, the prior week ending Aug 5 showed SOL +1.86%, BTC +1.19%, ETH +0.17%) .
• 30-day returns (as of Aug 5): ETH led at +5.16%, BTC at +1.26%, while SOL was deeply negative at -9.64% — explaining why the Aug 5 rebalance was still ETH-heavy.
• By Aug 12: the 30-day picture had shifted. SOL recovered to +2.44%, BTC +3.19%, ETH +7.88% over the trailing month .
• Volatility backdrop: Trading activity slowed and volatility compressed across all three assets, which GSR interpreted as a subdued market lacking a clear directional trend . Per CoinAlertNews, "compressed volatility across BTC, ETH, SOL could precede a sharp directional breakout" .
• GSR's relative alpha signals rotated toward Solana between the Aug 5 and Aug 12 rebalance dates, triggering the aggressive SOL overweight .
• Despite the overweight, year-to-date performance (as of Aug 5): BTC -24.82%, ETH -35.49%, SOL -40.21% — Solana remained the worst-performing asset over longer timeframes .

Returns vs. Equal-Weight Benchmark

GSR's Core3 model has underperformed a simple equal-weight (33.3% each) BTC/ETH/SOL basket over the longer term, but showed short-term outperformance after the Aug 12 rebalance:

Timeframe	Core3 Model Return	Equal-Weight Basket Return	Difference
1-year (through Aug 5)	-57.78%	-49.84%	-7.94 pp (underperformed)
Since inception (through Aug 12)	negative, trailing benchmark	outperformed the model	Core3 underperformed
Past week (after Aug 12 rebalance)	+0.85%	+0.59%	+0.26 pp (outperformed)
Past month (after Aug 12 rebalance)	+5.30%	+4.68%	+0.62 pp (outperformed)

The model's long-term underperformance reflects its momentum-chasing design: systematically overweighting recent winners leads to larger drawdowns in a sustained downtrend compared to a static equal-weight allocation .

Broader Context: U.S. Exchange-Traded Solana Access

The Aug 12 rebalance coincided with a well-established U.S. spot Solana ETF market, though net flows had stalled:

• U.S. spot Solana ETFs began trading on October 28, 2025, making SOL the third cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum to clear that regulatory bar .
• By mid-2026, six U.S. spot Solana ETFs (tickers BSOL, VSOL, FSOL, TSOL, SOEZ, GSOL) were actively trading .
• Morgan Stanley filed an amended application for its own spot Solana ETF (proposed ticker MSOL) with the SEC on March 25, 2026 , signaling continued institutional interest.
• In the week of July 29 – August 4, 2026, all six U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded five consecutive trading days of zero net flows, with a $18.1 million redemption from Bitwise's BSOL on July 28 .

So while Solana ETFs were a mature product by August 2026, the market was experiencing a pause in net inflows — making GSR's aggressive Solana tilt a contrarian bet on short-term momentum rather than a response to fresh ETF-driven demand.