統計證據好清楚:比特幣同石油冇任何有意義嘅長期相關性。就算有啲相關性出現,都只係喺極端宏觀壓力時期,而且係由兩者對流動性同通脹預期嘅共同敏感度驅動,而唔係直接因果關係。
本週嘅分歧同數據完全一致:油價跌9%係商品特定嘅供應正常化,對比特幣冇直接影響。比特幣約1%嘅跌幅反映佢本身已經存在嘅宏觀疲弱(極度恐懼、CPI困擾、區間交易),而唔係對和平協議嘅反應。五年嘅嚴謹計量經濟學證據顯示,比特幣同石油實際上係冇相關性,就算霍爾木茲危機都只係產生咗短暫、非因果嘅相關性飆升。展望將來,除咗持續能源通脹會實質改變聯儲局政策路徑嘅尾部風險情境之外,比特幣對石油嘅敏感度將繼續微不足道。
Bitget. "Bitcoin Didn’t Care about the Oil Market Recovery, 5-Years of Data Shows Why." June 19, 2026.
The National News. "A look at the effect of higher oil prices on Bitcoin – or the lack thereof." April 4, 2026.
Phemex. "Oil Above $100 and Bitcoin at $72K: How Energy Prices Reshaping Crypto 2026." April 10, 2026.
SSRN. "Analysing the Relationship Between Oil Futures and Cryptocurrency Markets From 2018 to 2024." June 29, 2024.
Resources Policy. "Impact of oil and gold prices on Bitcoin price during Russia-Ukraine war." December 14, 2024.
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