Strategy卖出32枚比特币，引发Polymarket 5000万美元预测市场大对决

A tiny corporate transaction has created a massive, multi-million-dollar headache for the prediction market Polymarket. On June 1, 2026, Strategy (the company formerly known as MicroStrategy) disclosed in an SEC filing that it had sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 to fund dividend payments on its preferred stock . The sale, worth about $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin, was insignificant compared to the company’s massive 843,706 BTC treasury, representing just 0.0038% of its total holdings . But the timing of the disclosure threw a market with over $50 million in wagers into chaos .

A simple bet encounters a timeline problem

The Polymarket contract in question was straightforward: "Will Strategy sell Bitcoin by the end of May?" . The core of the dispute is not what happened, but when the world could know it happened.

Strategy executed the 32 BTC sale across multiple days between May 26 and May 31, well within the prediction market’s deadline . The problem is that the company’s Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which served as the first public confirmation of the sale, was not submitted until Monday, June 1—one day after the market’s resolution window closed .

This one-day gap has split the trading community. "Yes" bettors point to the on-chain transaction dates and argue the market's question was satisfied in substance. Before the review was triggered, the "Yes" side was trading at a confident 81% . "No" bettors, and more importantly, the Polymarket platform itself, argue that the rules require public, verifiable confirmation within the market's timeframe, and no such information existed on May 31 .

The platform’s procedural argument

Polymarket quickly flagged the market for review and signaled it was leaning toward a "No" resolution . The platform's standard protocol for resolving disputes prioritizes information that was publicly available before a market closes . Since the SEC filing was the first credible source to confirm the sale, and it appeared on June 1, Polymarket’s internal logic sees the condition as unmet .

This has produced a dramatic reversal in market sentiment. While the "Yes" side once traded near 81 cents, the market now prices a "No" outcome at roughly 99.8 cents, suggesting a near-total consensus that the original bet will not pay out to those who wagered on a sale . Some traders have publicly voiced frustration, feeling the outcome is being decided on a technicality rather than the factual reality of the sale’s timing .

The final judge: UMA token holders will decide

The fate of the $50 million market will not be decided by Polymarket directly, but by a decentralized vote from UMA token holders, who serve as the platform’s oracle system for dispute resolution .

UMA voters now face a binary but philosophically complex question:

• Resolve to "Yes" based on the execution date, recognizing that the Bitcoin was verifiably sold before May 31.
• Resolve to "No" based on the public disclosure date, affirming that a bet on a future event cannot be settled by information revealed after the fact.

This is not just a dispute about a single trade. It serves as a crucial real-world test for the rules that govern decentralized prediction markets. The decision will set a precedent for how ambiguous contracts are interpreted when off-chain corporate actions and public disclosure timelines are out of sync. For now, the market holds its breath, and millions of dollars remain frozen in a bet on a moment that already happened.