Three-Way Oil Shock: How Ukraine's Drone Campaign, the Strait of Hormuz Closure, and the Bab el-Mandeb Crisis Created a Historic 6 Million b/d Supply Shortage

The cumulative effect has sharply restricted Russian naval operations and commercial shipping in the Black Sea.

Impact on Kazakhstan's Oil Exports via the CPC Terminal

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline handles roughly 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports and represents over 1% of global oil supply . It has been repeatedly hit:

• November 29, 2025: A Ukrainian drone strike severely damaged the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal near Novorossiysk, halting exports. Kazakhstan's foreign ministry urged Ukraine to cease attacks, calling them an assault on the country's economic interests . Full export capacity was not expected to return until at least December 11 . Europe lost out on 3.8 million tonnes of Kazakh oil as a result .
• December 2025: Kazakhstan temporarily reduced oil shipments via the CPC due to UAV attacks and bad weather . The country rerouted some crude through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline .
• July 20–23, 2026: Fresh drone strikes on tankers at the CPC terminal forced another suspension of exports . Kazakhstan condemned the attacks and announced it had cut crude oil production—the energy ministry said "oil firms adjusted their daily output, causing a temporary drop in production volumes" . Kazakhstan's overall oil output declined to 1.63 million bpd from a July average of 2.07 million bpd .

Simultaneous Strain on Global Energy Chokepoints

The Black Sea disruption is unfolding alongside even larger crises at two other critical maritime chokepoints.

Strait of Hormuz: Since late February 2026, the strait has been effectively closed to commercial transit due to the Iran conflict. By mid-2026, AIS data confirmed traffic at approximately 5% of pre-war baseline volumes, with 166–230 stranded tankers queued on the Persian Gulf side . In 2024, oil flow through the strait averaged about 20 million b/d (roughly one-fifth of global consumption) . The Baker Institute estimates the closure is blocking or diverting some 20% of global trade in crude oil and LNG .

Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Already severely disrupted by Houthi attacks that began in late 2023, traffic recovered only slightly in 2025 before the 2026 Iran war renewed attention on the chokepoint . The World Bank documented a 15% drop in maritime traffic through the region as the conflict's shadow spread .

These two chokepoints alone handle a combined volume far exceeding the Black Sea's flows, creating a simultaneous, three-front compression on global oil transit.

IEA's 6 Million b/d Supply Shortage Warning

The IEA's warnings have escalated sharply:

• March 2026: The IEA warned the Iran war was creating "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," with supply likely to plunge by 8 million b/d in March alone . Flows through the Strait of Hormuz were moving at less than 10% of pre-crisis levels .
• May 13, 2026: The IEA formally overhauled its market outlook, declaring the world faces a "massive 6 million b/d oil supply shortage" that could keep markets tight well beyond 2026 even if the Iran conflict is resolved swiftly . S&P Global described the market as "severely undersupplied" and projected deficits lasting into Q4 2026 .
• June 2, 2026: The IEA warned of "critically low stockpiles before peak summer demand," noting that supply gains from the Americas "only slightly mitigate the 14 million barrels per day lost from Gulf producers" . It cautioned that emergency stock releases are merely a temporary fix and not a remedy for structural shortages .

The 6 million b/d figure represents the net shortfall after accounting for all available compensatory supply—the gross disruption from the Middle East is far larger, with the IEA citing ~14 million b/d lost from Gulf producers alone .

Bottom line: Ukraine's drone campaign in the Black Sea has effectively disrupted a major global oil transit route, forcing Kazakhstan to cut production and reroute exports. This is happening in parallel with the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, creating a three-way compression on global oil supply. The IEA's warning of a 6 million b/d shortage—the largest in history—reflects that even if the Iran conflict were resolved immediately, markets would remain severely undersupplied well into 2027, with critically low inventories heading into peak summer demand.