力积电Q2财报释放重磅信号：AI存储超级周期已至，缺货将持续到2027年

The short version: Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (PSMC) posted strong Q2 2026 results on July 14, 2026, with revenue surging 53% year-over-year and gross margins nearly tripling. The company simultaneously announced a 45% DRAM price hike and warned the memory shortage is structural, likely extending into 2027. This outlook is not an outlier — it matches the consensus of the entire memory industry, from SK Hynix and Samsung to TrendForce and Goldman Sachs, all of whom see AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) crowding out commodity DRAM supply through at least 2027.

Powerchip Q2 2026: The Numbers Behind the Supercycle

PSMC reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 14, 2026, with headline figures that tell a clear story of a company riding a pricing super-cycle :

• Operating revenue: NT$17,291 million (approx. US$527 million), up 27% quarter-over-quarter and 53% year-over-year .
• Net income: NT$3,291 million — a 77% decline from Q1 2026, but a significant turnaround from a net loss of NT$3,226 million in Q2 2025 .
• Gross margin: Improved to 28%, up dramatically from just 10% in Q1 2026 .
• Operating income: NT$3.68 billion .
• Earnings per share (Q2): NT$0.76, versus a loss of NT$0.80 in Q2 2025 .
• Cash reserves: Rose sharply during the quarter .

The sequential decline in net income, despite strong revenue growth, reflects that Q1 2026 included one-time gains. On an underlying operating basis, Q2's performance was robust: revenue surged, margins expanded, and the company returned to profitability on a year-over-year basis.

Price Hikes: The Full Picture

In July 2026, Powerchip raised DRAM foundry prices by 45% and implemented 10–15% increases for power-management ICs (PMIC) and display-driver ICs (DDIC) . These hikes followed earlier increases in 2026: 12-inch DDIC prices were raised 30% and CIS (CMOS image sensor) prices by 20% . PSMC president Martin Chu stated the hikes would boost revenue by a double-digit percentage starting in June .

The scale of these increases reflects the broader pricing environment. According to TrendForce, Q1 2026 DRAM contract prices surged 90–95% quarter-over-quarter (with PC DRAM even doubling), and Q2 2026 continued rising 58–63% . The benchmark DDR4 8Gb chip hit an all-time high of US$20 per unit in May 2026 .

The Supply Warning: Structural, Not Cyclical

Powerchip's core warning is that the current memory supply shortage is structural — driven not by temporary disruption but by a fundamental reallocation of manufacturing capacity — and could last into 2027, with further price increases possible . This view is near-universally echoed across the semiconductor industry.

SK Hynix — On July 11, 2026, CEO Kwak Noh-jung warned that the global memory industry faces its "worst supply shortage ever" in 2027, with customer demand expected to outstrip supply capacity beyond 2030. He cited AI-driven demand for HBM and server DRAM as the primary driver .

Samsung — On April 30, 2026, memory chief Kim Jaejune warned that "significant shortages" across memory products are expected to continue through at least 2027, with demand fulfillment rates at record lows. Some customers have already secured supply allocations through 2027 .

TSMC — CEO C.C. Wei warned on June 4, 2026, that the AI chip shortage will last "for years" and that the foundry will struggle to satisfy demand for several years .

Omdia — In May 2026, the market intelligence firm raised its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast to 62.7% growth, pointing to unprecedented DRAM and NAND expansion driven by sustained demand and ongoing supply shortages, with meaningful relief unlikely before well into 2027 .

TrendForce — Documented that DRAM suppliers continue to reallocate advanced process nodes and new capacity toward HBM and server products, significantly limiting supply in other markets .

Goldman Sachs — Revised its 2026 DRAM price forecast to 250–280% annual increase, explicitly stating "the memory shortage could extend into 2027" .

S&P Global — Reported that the AI-driven memory shortage is creating a profitability risk for non-AI products as capacity is reallocated to HBM and server DRAM .

J.P. Morgan — Expects structural shortages to extend through at least 2027, and possibly into 2028, as demand growth continues .

On Counterpoint Research and IDC specifically: The available source set did not surface direct public statements from either firm on memory supply constraints in the 2026–2027 timeframe. However, the consensus from the above sources — every major memory producer and independent analyst firm that has commented — is remarkably consistent in expecting structural memory supply tightness to persist through at least 2027.

Why This Shortage Is Different

The AI-driven memory supercycle differs from previous cyclical shortages in one critical way: it is a structural reallocation of production capacity, not a temporary demand spike. Memory manufacturers — SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron — have shifted significant wafer production toward High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI accelerators . UBS estimates that about 20% of front-end DRAM capacity shifted to HBM by late 2025 . HBM uses advanced packaging and consumes significantly more manufacturing capacity per unit than conventional DRAM .

This reallocation has starved the commodity DRAM market, driving prices to all-time highs and creating knock-on effects across the broader semiconductor supply chain. The price surge is spreading beyond memory into power semiconductors, with Infineon, Texas Instruments, and others raising prices .

What It Means for Buyers

The practical takeaway is clear: if your product relies on commodity DRAM, power management ICs, or display drivers, expect continued price pressure and allocation challenges through at least 2027. As SK Hynix's CEO put it: "We forecast that next year will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective" .