高盛：电动车加速普及将永久削减石油需求，布伦特2027年目标价下调至75美元

What triggered the acceleration: The bank attributed the EV surge to the price spike from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which made gasoline far more expensive and pushed consumers toward electric vehicles at a faster rate than previously expected .

Global EV market share data cited:

• Global EV sales as a share of the total new-car market rose by 3.4 percentage points during the crisis period .
• Total EV market share hit 26.1% last month, marking its second-highest level ever recorded .

Demand reduction estimates:

• Base-case estimate: The EV-driven demand drag reaches approximately 320,000 bpd by late 2027 .
• For context, a separate Goldman note on June 6 estimated total global oil demand destruction (from all causes, including destocking and broader economic effects) at 4–5 million bpd in April, representing a 4–5% reduction in global demand .
• The bank noted that demand recovery from the crisis would be "swift but not complete," with EV penetration in China acting as a permanent structural drag on oil demand .

2027 Brent Crude Price Forecasts: Two Successive Cuts

Goldman Sachs progressively lowered its Brent crude price forecasts through June 2026:

• June 11–12 (first cut): Goldman lowered its 2027 Brent average by $5 to $80/bbl, citing stronger supply from non-OPEC producers (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, UAE) and weaker demand, particularly China's shift to EVs .
• June 16 (post-U.S.-Iran deal): After the interim peace deal was announced, Goldman cut again — lowering the 2027 average to $75/bbl and reducing the Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $90 .
• June 17 (Goldman Research podcast): Goldman Research co-head Daan Struyven confirmed the $75/bbl forecast for 2027, noting the market had already priced in the supply recovery .

Key rationale for the second cut: The U.S.-Iran interim agreement, announced by President Trump, lifted the naval blockade and began reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman accelerated its assumed timeline for Persian Gulf export recovery by one month — to end-July 2026 instead of end-August — bringing forward a wave of previously locked-out supply . The bank noted that in April 2026, before the deal, it had warned Brent could hit $130/bbl if the strait never fully reopened; the peace deal effectively eliminated that tail risk .

The Structural Drag on Oil Markets

Goldman identified two durable structural drags that will persist even after the Hormuz crisis fully resolves:

1. China's EV-led demand destruction: The bank noted that China's accelerating shift to electric vehicles has created a "structural drag" on oil demand estimated at around half a million barrels per day on the demand baseline into 2027 . One analyst wrote that EV penetration in China "keeps a structural drag" that does not reverse .

2. 'Just over 10%' of demand damage sticks: Goldman assumed that just over 10% of the temporary demand weakness caused by the price spike would be permanent — meaning consumer behavior changes (EV adoption, efficiency gains, modal shifts) will not snap back even after prices fall .

Market surplus projection: The bank projected a 3.2 million bpd surplus in the oil market by 2027, though it noted that low inventories and strategic stockpiling demand would provide a floor under prices .

Broader Context: The U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

The mid-June U.S.-Iran interim peace deal was the pivotal geopolitical catalyst for the forecast downgrades:

• The deal ended hostilities and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil flows .
• Goldman said Gulf exports could return to pre-conflict levels by end-July 2026, one month faster than previously assumed .
• In its June 17 podcast, Goldman Research co-head Daan Struyven stated prices were likely to fall further but would not return to pre-war levels immediately, as the market was already pricing in a "relatively optimistic base case" .
• Even after the cuts, Goldman noted risks remained skewed to the upside — if the Strait of Hormuz faced renewed disruptions, Brent crude could still rebound above $130 .

Bottom Line

Goldman Sachs' late-June research concluded that:

• China-led global EV adoption, supercharged by Hormuz crisis fuel prices, will cut oil demand by up to 320,000 bpd by late 2027 (base case).
• Global EV market share jumped 3.4 percentage points during the crisis period, reaching 26.1%.
• Brent crude forecasts were cut in two steps — first to $80/bbl (June 12), then to $75/bbl for 2027 (June 16) — driven by both the EV demand drag and the U.S.-Iran peace deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
• The bank sees a structural, non-reversing drag on oil demand of "just over 10%" of the crisis-period demand weakness, with China's EV penetration as the main long-term anchor .