霍尔木兹海峡危机重塑全球原油格局：俄罗斯原油折扣消失，中印炼油商紧急转向

Russian ESPO discount narrowing for Chinese refiners

• December 2025: ESPO Blend was selling at a record discount of $5–$6/bbl versus Brent at Chinese ports, driven by weak demand and sanctions .
• Early 2026: Discounts narrowed as Chinese independent refiners rushed to secure March-loading cargoes amid supply fears, with Indian buyers also resuming some purchases .
• July 23, 2026: Major Chinese refiners have ramped up purchases of Russian ESPO crude despite shrinking discounts, because the Iran war has severely disrupted Middle Eastern exports. Two major Chinese buyers booked most of a rare September-loading ESPO Blend tender .

Russian crude discounts have disappeared for Indian refiners

• July 23, 2026: The head of finance at Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) stated that traders have stopped offering any discounts on Russian crude sold to India, because Middle East supply disruptions have boosted demand for all alternative grades . BPCL confirmed the discount window has effectively closed for September 2026 deliveries .
• Context: India imported nearly 2 million bpd of Russian crude in March 2026 — its highest since June 2025 — but even then the steep discounts that once made Russian oil attractive were already fading .

Pivot by Chinese and Indian refiners toward Russian crude and alternatives

China:

• Chinese refiners are buying more Russian ESPO despite the narrowing price advantage, and are also eyeing Iranian crude as the Middle East supply crunch deepens . The value of China's shadow fleet for purchasing sanctioned oil at big discounts has greatly diminished due to the conflict .

India:

• Indian refiners, having lost Russian discounts, are now pivoting toward alternative non-Middle Eastern grades to backfill the shortfall. Sources indicate Indian buyers are actively seeking Iranian, Venezuelan, and Angolan crude as replacement barrels . The US blockade of Iranian ports (April 13–May 29, 2026) complicates Iranian supply, but interest remains strong.

India's surge in refined product exports to tight Asian markets

• India has taken a distinct strategy: buy discounted Russian crude and ramp up refined product exports to fill the gap left by shuttered Middle Eastern and Russian refineries .
• July 2026: India's exports of light and middle distillates are expected to reach 1.55 million bpd, the highest monthly volume since September and roughly 50% higher than in May . Kpler data shows India on track to export ~1.4 million bpd of refined products in July .
• Indian petroleum product exports could rise ~25% from FY25's $44.4 billion as the country emerges as the world's de facto refining swing producer . Asian fuel markets, starved of Middle East and Russian refinery output, are absorbing these barrels at robust margins .