美伊60天停火仅三周即告破裂：霍尔木兹海峡、第五轮空袭与全球能源市场的震荡

2025年6月17日，美国和伊朗签署了一份具有里程碑意义的谅解备忘录（MOU），旨在实现为期60天的停火。然而，这份脆弱的和平仅维持了约三周便宣告破裂。直接的导火索是双方对霍尔木兹海峡控制权的争执——这条狭窄的水道承载着全球约五分之一的石油运输量 。备忘录要求解除“双重封锁”，恢复商业航运，但双方都指责对方未能履行条款 。伊朗开始袭击通过该海峡的商船，美国则以多轮空袭作为回应 。2025年7月8日，在北约峰会上，美国总统特朗普正式宣布停火结束，他直言：“我不想再和他们打交道了……对我来说，这一切都结束了” 。他已批准对伊朗南部港口和霍尔木兹海峡附近的军事设施发动额外打击 。

第五轮美方打击：目标究竟是什么？

报道显示，美国在7月9日至10日发动了规模庞大的“第五轮”空袭。美国中央司令部表示，此次行动打击了伊朗境内约90个目标，并发布了黑白影像资料，显示袭击了机场跑道和导弹发射器 。伊朗官员报告称，其唯一的核电站——布什尔核电站附近以及全国多个地点发生了爆炸 。此前的几轮空袭主要集中于伊朗南部港口和霍尔木兹海峡附近的军事设施 。而这第五轮打击标志着一个重大的战略扩张，其目标不再局限于核设施，而是扩大到了常规军事基础设施，甚至包括了布什尔核电站周边区域。

伊朗如何回应

伊朗的回应迅速且多管齐下。伊朗发射了针对美国盟友科威特和巴林的导弹，但美方官员称这些导弹要么发生故障，要么被成功拦截 。同时，伊朗切断了通过卡塔尔和阿曼与美国调解人的沟通渠道，这进一步表明了外交渠道的完全破裂 。伊朗官员公开指责美国袭击了布什尔核电站附近区域，国家媒体报道了多个省份发生爆炸 。这一回应与其此前的威胁相一致：伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在6月底曾誓言，如果美国再次打击伊朗，将攻击美国在地区的基地；而伊朗武装部队此前已于6月23日展示了其打击能力，对位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动了攻击 。

更广泛的连锁反应

霍尔木兹海峡

The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz was the proximate cause of the ceasefire's collapse, and its status remains the central unresolved issue. The MOU had agreed only in principle to resume navigation through the strait but did not clarify which party would manage and control passage . On July 12, the IRGC Navy declared the strait closed after claiming to have fired warning shots at a ship attempting to cross an unauthorized route . Traffic through the strait remains unpredictable, and analysts describe Hormuz transit as "likely to remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future" .

油价

The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz was the proximate cause of the ceasefire's collapse, and its status remains the central unresolved issue. The MOU had agreed only in principle to resume navigation through the strait but did not clarify which party would manage and control passage . On July 12, the IRGC Navy declared the strait closed after claiming to have fired warning shots at a ship attempting to cross an unauthorized route . Traffic through the strait remains unpredictable, and analysts describe Hormuz transit as "likely to remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future" .

6月17日备忘录的现状

The MOU is effectively defunct. Trump declared it over on July 8, and both sides resumed active hostilities . No new ceasefire framework has been proposed, and negotiations through Qatari and Omani mediators have stalled . The collapse of the 60-day framework also undermined the temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil that had been in place, with the U.S. revoking the license on July 7 .

更大格局

The rapid unraveling of the ceasefire underscores a critical flaw in the June 17 MOU: it established a cessation of hostilities and a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but it left the most contentious issue — who controls and manages the waterway — unresolved. The resulting ambiguity gave both sides grounds to accuse the other of non-compliance, and neither showed willingness to back down . For global energy markets, the collapse means the era of uninterrupted Gulf oil flows is over, according to Reuters analysts, and traders will need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium into crude for the foreseeable future .