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Why Cocoa Futures Fell to Seven-Week Lows on September 18, 2026
Cocoa futures tumbled to seven week lows on September 18, 2026: December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327 and London cocoa dropped 7.48%, as strong Ivory Coast supply and two year high ICE stocks signaled ample near... Ivory Coast reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 harvested cocoa to 2.06 million tonnes, while por...
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- Cocoa futures tumbled to seven week lows on September 18, 2026: December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327 and London cocoa dropped 7.48%, as strong Ivory Coast supply and two year high ICE stocks signaled ample near...
- Ivory Coast reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 harvested cocoa to 2.06 million tonnes, while port shipments were running 18% higher year on year; ICE inventories stood near 3.42 million bags.
- The selloff did not remove longer term supply risk: StoneX cut its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes amid weaker crop expectations, disease and El Niño concerns in West Africa.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What caused cocoa futures to fall to seven-week lows on September 18, 2026, including the scale of the price decline, evidence of surging Iv. Article summary: Cocoa’s September 18 selloff was primarily a short-term supply-and-inventory trade, reinforced by weakness elsewhere in soft commodities. The medium-term picture was less comfortable: forecasts pointed to a much tighter . Topic tags: general, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clic
Cocoa’s sharp fall on September 18 reflected a straightforward near-term message from the physical market: supplies looked more available than traders had expected. Stronger production and port arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire, combined with a large build in exchange-certified inventories, outweighed concerns about the next West African crop.
How large was the cocoa selloff?
December ICE New York cocoa settled down 445 points, or 7.71%, at 5,327. December London cocoa fell 318 points, or 7.48%, to 3,934. Both contracts reached seven-week lows. 18
The size of the move mattered because it extended a broader pullback from late-August levels. The immediate catalyst was not a change in long-term consumption, but evidence that buyers had access to more cocoa in the near term.
Côte d’Ivoire supply data turned bearish
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, provided the clearest evidence of improved short-run availability. Its cocoa regulator reported production of 2.06 million metric tonnes from June 2025 through June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 million tonnes a year earlier. 5
Port arrivals reinforced that message. Cumulative shipments reached 2.14 million tonnes through September 13, up 18% year on year. 5 Earlier data through August 30 showed the same volume running 19% ahead of the prior year.
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For futures markets, those figures suggest more beans are reaching the export chain now. That reduces the urgency for processors and merchants to secure nearby supply, putting pressure on prompt contracts.
Exchange inventories confirmed ample nearby availability
ICE-certified cocoa inventories had risen to a two-year high. Stocks reached 3,436,742 bags on September 4 and were still around 3.42 million bags in mid-September. 7
High exchange stocks do not settle the longer-term supply outlook, but they are important for the nearby market. They indicate deliverable cocoa is readily available against futures contracts, weakening the scarcity premium that can support prices during a tight physical market.
A softer complex added to the pressure
Cocoa was also falling in a weak soft-commodities environment. Arabica coffee had reached a 10-week low, while sugar and cocoa were easing as well. 17
That backdrop likely reinforced selling momentum. When several soft commodities weaken at once, traders may reduce exposure across the group rather than treat each market as a separate supply story. Still, the specific cocoa drivers were the rise in Ivorian supply and the inventory build.
Why the medium-term outlook remained less comfortable
The September selloff was based on current availability, not on certainty that supply would remain abundant through 2026/27. Forecasts for the next West African crop pointed in the opposite direction.
Early surveys put Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 crop near 1.8 million tonnes, about 18% below an estimated 2.2 million tonnes for 2025/26. 4
8 That projection was preliminary, but it suggested that the strong flow of beans seen in the current market might not be repeated.
Ghana added another source of risk. COCOBOD projected 2026/27 production of 450,000 to 550,000 tonnes, compared with 750,000 tonnes projected for 2025/26. The regulator cited swollen-shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and the possibility of adverse weather associated with El Niño. 11
El Niño could turn a small surplus into a tighter market
El Niño is the key uncertainty. A stronger event can bring hotter, drier conditions to West Africa, lowering soil moisture and potentially reducing cocoa yields. 8 The risk is especially consequential because Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana dominate global cocoa supply.
StoneX cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes, citing deteriorating West African crop prospects and El Niño risk. 9 A surplus is still a surplus, but a cushion of that size leaves the market much more exposed if weather, disease or pod development worsens.
What the price drop meant
The fall to seven-week lows was a repricing of the near-term supply picture. Ivorian harvest and shipment data were strong, ICE stocks were elevated, and weakness across soft commodities added to bearish sentiment.
The counterweight was timing: the supply data described beans available now, while the major risks concerned future crops. Cocoa’s next major direction therefore depended on whether Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana could avoid the weather, disease and structural production problems embedded in early 2026/27 forecasts. 4
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Cocoa futures tumbled to seven week lows on September 18, 2026: December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327 and London cocoa dropped 7.48%, as strong Ivory Coast supply and two year high ICE stocks signaled ample near...
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Cocoa futures tumbled to seven week lows on September 18, 2026: December New York cocoa fell 7.71% to 5,327 and London cocoa dropped 7.48%, as strong Ivory Coast supply and two year high ICE stocks signaled ample near... Ivory Coast reported a 30% increase in 2025/26 harvested cocoa to 2.06 million tonnes, while port shipments were running 18% higher year on year; ICE inventories stood near 3.42 million bags.
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The selloff did not remove longer term supply risk: StoneX cut its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes amid weaker crop expectations, disease and El Niño concerns in West Africa.