Can thiệp 87 tỷ USD không ngăn được làn sóng carry trade yen hồi sinh

3. Hedge funds are rebuilding short-yen positions after a tactical flush. Before the intervention, hedge funds had piled into the largest bearish yen positioning since 2007 . The intervention forced a sharp but short-lived unwind — hedge funds halved their short-yen bets through August 4 . But as volatility subsided, "some investors are starting to return to carry trades funded by the yen" . As of late July, global hedge funds still held roughly 124,575 short-yen contracts worth about $9.5 billion .

4. The BOJ's cautious outlook keeps yen funding cheap in relative terms. The BOJ left rates unchanged at 1.00% in a decisive 8-1 vote, citing the need to assess whether inflation can sustainably hold around 2% . While markets now price a 76% chance of a September rate hike (up from 24% before the intervention), that expectation alone hasn't been enough to deter carry traders . The BOJ's rate-hiking path is also constrained by political pressure to support the bond market, limiting how aggressively it can move .

5. Morgan Stanley estimates roughly $500 billion in outstanding yen-funded carry positions remain in global markets, suggesting the trade's scale is vast and deeply embedded . A sustained unwinding would require either a BOJ rate hike well above current expectations or a sharp fall in U.S. rates — neither of which has materialized.

In short, the intervention broke the momentum of the yen's slide but left the interest rate advantage that powers the carry trade intact. As Goldman Sachs noted, whether Tokyo intervenes again "hinges on the rate differential between Japanese and U.S. rates" — and that differential remains very much in the carry trade's favor .