42,74% công suất lọc dầu Nga tê liệt: Ukraine tập kích kho cảng St. Petersburg, châm ngòi cuộc khủng hoảng nhiên liệu chưa từng có

On the night of July 4, 2026, Ukraine launched a major long-range drone attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal and port infrastructure in the Leningrad region, striking a Baltic Sea oil export terminal and causing fires at the site. The attack was part of a broader wave that also hit military targets near Kronstadt. By that date, Ukraine's cumulative campaign against Russian energy infrastructure had disabled 42.74% of the country's total designed oil refining capacity, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, triggering an unprecedented domestic fuel crisis that has forced Moscow to enact sweeping export bans, regional fuel rationing, and even discussions of fuel imports for the first time.

The July 4–5, 2026 Drone Strike on St. Petersburg

Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal and port infrastructure in the St. Petersburg / Leningrad region, as well as military targets near the naval base at Kronstadt . The strike was aimed at what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as "key infrastructure that funds Russia's war effort" . St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov confirmed the city of 6 million faced a "large drone attack" and admitted the terminal was hit . He reported no casualties and that the aftermath had been dealt with .

The attack occurred overnight on Saturday, July 4, 2026, with reports of explosions and fires continuing into July 5 . Russian officials reported intercepting drones but acknowledged successful hits. Local authorities warned of possible internet disruptions . Leningrad region Governor Alexander Drozdenko said drones had also struck the port of Vysotsk, about 170 kilometers (105 miles) northwest of St. Petersburg . The Kremlin did not issue a detailed official damage assessment but confirmed the attack.

Cumulative Damage from Ukraine's Sustained Energy Campaign

As of early July 2026, Ukraine's General Staff provided its most comprehensive assessment of the campaign's impact on Russia's energy sector.

Refining capacity disabled: 42.74% of Russia's total designed oil refining capacity had been put out of action as of early July 2026, according to Ukrainian military sources . President Zelenskyy had stated approximately 40% a month earlier . Independent analysts, including the Carnegie Endowment and Reuters, have generally confirmed that a significant portion of Russian capacity is offline, though they sometimes cite slightly lower figures for currently idle capacity versus cumulative nameplate capacity hit . The overall direction — that Ukraine's campaign has disabled well over a third of Russia's refining capacity and triggered an unprecedented domestic fuel crisis — is broadly corroborated by multiple Western and Russian sources.

Refineries and storage hit: Eight Russian refineries were struck in the past month alone, and more than 60 fuel storage tanks were destroyed or damaged . Between January and June 2026, Ukraine struck 16 major Russian oil refineries and fuel terminals, disabling more than 30% of Russia's oil-refining capacity .

Total sector losses: Cumulative industry losses since August 2025 were estimated at $13.5 billion by the Ukrainian General Staff .

Record downtime: By August 2025, Reuters had already documented Russia's idle refining capacity at a record high . In the April–May 2026 period, there were 26 Ukrainian attacks on refineries — the same number as in August–September 2025 when gasoline shortages first appeared . Russia's average daily output of refined oil fell by up to 480,000 barrels in that period — 9 percent lower than July 2025 . By April–May 2026, the decline was even steeper, with daily output dropping by up to 700,000 barrels, a 13 percent fall from the end of March .

Russia's Domestic Fuel Crisis

The cumulative effect of these strikes has produced a severe domestic fuel crisis.

Fuel rationing and sales restrictions: By June 23, 2026, at least 15 Russian regions had introduced restrictions on fuel sales . This included the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Russia's largest oil-producing region accounting for approximately 40% of national output . Restrictions have since spread further. By June 25, 2026, fuel rationing measures were in place in at least 56 Russian regions, according to open-source data analyzed by The Moscow Times . In 18 of those regions, the restrictions were imposed by local authorities and were binding on every gas station, typically capping the volume of fuel sold per car at around 30 liters and requiring fuel to be dispensed into the tank only, with sales into gas cans banned . The harshest restrictions were imposed in annexed Crimea and Sevastopol, where fuel sales to the public were effectively halted .

Shortages at the pump: Long lines at gas stations became common across affected regions, with petrol and diesel prices spiking . By late June 2026, Putin admitted publicly that "problems" and queues persist at filling stations across the country .

Regions hardest hit: Shortages were reported as "even worse" in regions close to the combat zone (southern and western regions bordering Ukraine), though restrictions spread as far as Siberia and the oil-producing heartland . Google searches on how to fill a car with fuel in Russia surged, with the local Yandex search engine showing queries like "where to buy gasoline" and reports of gas stations in some areas selling out entirely .

Moscow's Emergency Measures

The Russian government has taken multiple emergency steps to stabilize the domestic fuel market, including export bans and discussions of fuel imports.

Gasoline export ban: Russia banned gasoline exports from producers starting April 1, 2026, initially set to last until the end of July 2026 . Non-producers' exports remained banned separately .

Diesel export ban under consideration: By June 23, 2026, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was leading discussions on a full ban on diesel exports, along with possible fuel imports and subsidies to stabilize prices .

Jet fuel export ban: Russia also banned jet fuel exports until the end of November 2026, marking the country's first-ever ban on jet fuel exports .

Fuel imports being discussed: Moscow began actively discussing importing fuel from other countries — a deeply ironic step for the world's third-largest oil producer — to relieve the domestic deficit . Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "If agreements can be reached at acceptable price points, then [imports] will move forward" .

Price controls and supply re-routing: The government scrambled to re-route supplies, maintain price caps, and enforce the export bans, particularly during the agricultural harvesting season when demand spikes . Putin said Russia had begun using its gasoline reserves, which he put at 1.7 million tons, and predicted that July production would exceed June's level .

A Note on the Numbers

The 42.74% figure and $13.5 billion loss estimate come directly from Ukraine's General Staff and represent a Ukrainian military claim . Independent energy analysts estimate the functional disruption to be closer to one-third of Russia's capacity . The Carnegie Endowment notes that while "the situation is not that bad" if you distinguish between cumulative capacity hit and simultaneous throughput loss, the trajectory is clear: Ukraine's campaign has become significantly more intense in 2026, and the damage has forced Moscow into a defensive posture it has never before experienced .