จากโยนเหรียญปี 1966 สู่ระบบ 3-2-1: 6 ครั้งที่ NBA ปฏิวัติกฎดราฟต์ ปราบทีมขี้แพ้

For nearly 60 years, the NBA has battled an annual tradition almost as old as the draft itself: teams deliberately losing games to secure a better pick. Every reform to the draft lottery has been a direct response to a new tanking scandal, and the league's latest move is its most aggressive yet. Here is how the system evolved from a simple coin toss to the revolutionary 3-2-1 format approved for the 2027 draft.

Coin Flip Era (1966–1984)

Before 1966, the worst team simply picked first, which led to an obvious race to the bottom. The league replaced that incentive with a coin flip between the worst team in the Eastern Conference and the worst team in the Western Conference. The winner of the toss got the first overall pick, the loser received the second, and the rest of the first-round order was determined by inverse win-loss record . This system remained in place through the 1983–84 season, but it still incentivized losing because only the absolute worst team in each conference had a shot at the top pick.

Envelope System with Equal Odds (1985–1989)

The first true lottery debuted in 1985. Seven non-playoff teams each had an equal 14.3% chance of having their envelope drawn from a hopper. Only the first overall pick was determined by chance; the remaining selections reverted to reverse-standings order . This era is most famous for the 1985 controversy when the New York Knicks won the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes, leading to conspiracy theories about a frozen or bent envelope. As the league expanded, the field grew to nine teams by the end of the 1980s.

Weighted Lottery (1990)

In 1990, the NBA introduced its first system that differentiated odds based on record. A pool of 66 ping-pong balls was used. The worst team received 11 balls, giving it a 16.7% chance at the No. 1 pick, the second-worst received 10, and the odds decreased incrementally down to a single ball for the best lottery team . This was the first attempt to give the truly bad teams a slight edge without guaranteeing them a top pick.

1994 Odds Revision

Approved in November 1993, this reform steepened the weighting significantly. The league switched to a format using 14 ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14, and the four-number combination system that remains in spirit today. The worst team saw its odds of winning the No. 1 pick jump from 16.7% to 25%, while the best lottery team's odds plummeted from 1.5% to 0.5% . This core structure remained largely intact through expansion cycles and into the 2010s.

2019 Odds Flattening

In response to the Philadelphia 76ers' brazen multi-year "Process" tanking strategy, the NBA flattened the odds dramatically starting with the 2019 draft. The bottom three teams were each given an equal 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, a steep drop from the previous 25% for the worst team. The lottery also began determining the first four picks instead of just the first three, further reducing the penalty for being the league's worst team .

The 3-2-1 Lottery (Effective 2027 Draft)

On May 28, 2026, the NBA Board of Governors passed the most radical anti-tanking measure in league history by a 29-1 vote . The new system, termed the 3-2-1 Lottery, will take effect with the 2027 NBA Draft and represents a complete philosophical reversal from the previous 25% era. The key changes are:

• Expansion to 16 teams — The lottery no longer includes only non-playoff teams. It now encompasses the 10 teams that miss the play-in tournament, the four No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games .
• The Relegation Zone — The bottom three teams are now penalized with a "relegation zone" and receive worse odds than better teams. Each of the three worst teams will have only a 5.4% chance of winning the No. 1 pick .
• Flattened Odds for the Middle Tier — Teams that finish with the fourth-worst record through the tenth-worst record will all have an equal 8.1% chance at the top pick .
• Play-in Losers — The losers of the 7/8 play-in games will have a 2.7% chance at the No. 1 pick .
• Ball Allocation — As the name implies, each lottery team receives three, two, or one ping-pong balls based on its tier, rather than a complex combination system, simplifying the draw and ensuring no team has an outsized mathematical advantage .

The league's explicit goal with the 3-2-1 system is to eliminate the incentive for any team to prioritize its draft position over winning games. For the first time in history, finishing with one of the very worst records is a significant mathematical disadvantage rather than an advantage .