Silver faller under 64 dollar – Konsolidering eller trendbrott i augusti 2026?

Silver fell below $64.00 per ounce in mid-August 2026 as investors locked in profits from a nearly 12% month-long rally that had pushed prices above $66. The pullback was amplified by a firmer U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and technical exhaustion after the metal completed the measured target of a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern near $67.00 . However, most evidence points to this being a healthy consolidation within a broader uptrend, not a reversal, supported by a sixth consecutive structural supply deficit, still-resilient industrial demand, and buyers returning quickly at the $64.20 support area .

What Triggered the Pullback

The retreat below $64 was driven by a confluence of technical and macro factors, not a single catalyst.

Profit-taking after a 12% rally. Silver surged from mid-$56 lows in early August to a seven-week high just shy of $66.60, driven by strong investment flows and a bullish technical breakout . That rapid run prompted traders to lock in gains, especially as the metal hit the measured target of a Head & Shoulders pattern near $67.00 .

Firmer U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. A stronger dollar pressured all precious metals, including silver, by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers .

Shifting Fed policy expectations. After soft U.S. inflation data, the CME FedWatch probability of a September rate hike dropped from 40% to 34.8%, but uncertainty around the Fed's next move still weighed on speculative positioning .

Middle East geopolitical tensions. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz risks and the Iran conflict added a risk-off undercurrent, though analysts note that a de-escalation could actually restore investment demand .

Technical Levels and CTA Flow Signals

The technical picture offers a clear roadmap for traders watching the next move.

Near-term support at $63.30. FXStreet identifies the former resistance-turned-support area around $63.30 as a key bearish test level; a break below that could open a move toward $62.00 .

Resistance at $66.40–$67.15. Silver failed to break above $66.40 and the H&S target zone near $67, triggering the corrective move . Above $67.15, the next bullish target is $71.50 .

Mixed short-term technicals. As of August 13, Investing.com's daily technical summary showed 7 sell signals vs. 2 buy signals (RSI at 43.6, MACD sell), indicating the pullback has short-term bearish momentum . However, the metal had already bounced from $64.20 back above $66 within 24 hours on August 12, showing buyers stepped in quickly .

200-day EMA inflection. Silver traded between its 50-day and 200-day EMAs near $65.18, with a clear resistance ceiling around $70 . A sustained hold above the 200-day EMA would be a bullish structural signal.

Broader Market Factors Supporting the Consolidation View

The fundamental backdrop provides a strong counterweight to short-term bearish momentum.

Sixth consecutive structural deficit. The Silver Institute projects a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, up 15% from 2025, with cumulative stock draws of 762 million ounces since 2021 raising the risk of liquidity squeezes .

Supply constraints persist. Roughly 70-75% of silver production is a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mining, limiting the ability of miners to ramp up output quickly even at higher prices . Mine production is expected to stay roughly flat in 2026 .

Industrial demand remains resilient. Although industrial demand is forecast to edge down 2-3% to approximately 640–650 million ounces, it remains historically high, supported by solar photovoltaic, electronics, and automotive applications .

Physical investment demand rising. Retail investment in silver is expected to rise 20% to 227 million ounces in 2026, partially offsetting the industrial dip .

Central bank and institutional interest. While silver is not a central bank reserve asset like gold, broader precious metals purchasing by institutions and sovereign wealth funds provides indirect support .

Outlook: Consolidation, Not Reversal

The weight of evidence suggests the retreat below $64 was a textbook profit-taking pullback after an overextended rally, not the start of a new downtrend . Buyers returned at $64.20 and pushed silver back above $66 within a day, demonstrating that dip demand remains strong . RBC's 2027 model assumption still implies roughly 25% upside from the $66 level . The combination of a widening structural deficit, supply inelasticity, and recovering investment demand provides a bullish medium-term backdrop, with the caveat that near-term volatility will persist as the market digests Fed policy signals and geopolitical developments .

Key risk. The bullish case depends on silver holding above the $63.30–$62.00 support zone. A break below $62 could signal a deeper correction and weaken the consolidation narrative .