Maersk-sjefen: Forholdene er klare for full retur til Suez i 2026 – så lenge ingenting skjer i Jemen

Despite these moves, Maersk has repeatedly emphasized that this is a "gradual return" and that it currently has "no specific timeline" for a full network restoration .

The sharp contrast: Strait of Hormuz remains near-paralyzed

While Maersk's Red Sea return is cautiously optimistic, the broader geopolitical and maritime security picture remains dire, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical energy chokepoint.

Traffic has collapsed by roughly 90%

Before the Iran conflict, more than 130 vessels per day crossed the Strait of Hormuz . On one recent day in August, only 14 vessels transited — and 11 of those used Iran-managed routes . Average daily traffic was 33 in June and 26 in July . Among 2,339 Hormuz crossings tracked from late February to August 5, more than 54% were "dark transits" with vessel-tracking transponders turned off . Iranian-controlled routes accounted for 29% of crossings, while only about 9% used the route approved by the UN's International Maritime Organisation .

War-risk insurance at extreme levels

War-risk premiums for Hormuz transits have reached 7.5% to 10% of hull value — dwarfing the 1–3% ceiling of previous volatile periods . A 270,000-metric-ton tanker now carries an additional insurance cost of roughly $8–10 million per voyage . Insurers are reviewing coverage every 24–48 hours, and some have advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages entirely .

Houthi threats persist in Bab el-Mandeb

Maritime insurance prices are also soaring for vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb strait, with both waterways now considered active "theatres of war" . Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping remain an ongoing threat, which is why Clerc explicitly conditioned his full-return forecast on "nothing happen[ing] in Yemen" .

Oil prices remain volatile

Oil markets have been highly sensitive to headlines. On August 4, Brent crude fell 5.3% ($4.41) to settle at $79.36 on hopes of a US-Iran diplomatic resolution . By August 11, oil had spiked back to $90/barrel as the Hormuz stalemate hardened . Goldman Sachs expected Brent to trade in a range of $80 to $90 per barrel until a deal is confirmed .

Prediction markets see virtually no chance of Hormuz normalization

Prediction markets are pricing a return to normal navigation at the Strait of Hormuz at less than 1% — underscoring that, despite the US-Iran-Oman interim deal talks, virtually no probability is assigned to a meaningful reopening [per user premise; consistent with the broader evidence of extreme market pessimism].

Bottom line: Two very different shipping worlds

Maersk's cautious Suez return is a container-focused, gradual re-routing of specific services where security conditions have improved enough for limited transits. It saves customers 7–14 days of transit time compared with the Cape of Good Hope detour. But it exists in a world where:

• Hormuz traffic is down ~90%
• War-risk premiums are at historic highs (7.5–10% of hull value)
• Houthi threats persist in Bab el-Mandeb
• Crude tanker traffic has collapsed at both chokepoints
• Prediction markets see virtually zero chance of Hormuz normalization

The gap between the Red Sea's partial reopening and the Persian Gulf's full paralysis remains enormous. Maersk's gradual return is real, but it is far from a signal that global shipping is back to normal.