ロシア国民の半数がウクライナ戦争を「成功」とみなさず：最新世論調査と国内危機、政治的压力

For the first time since the full-scale invasion began, half of Russian citizens no longer consider the war in Ukraine "successful," according to independent polling that reveals a sharp erosion of public confidence. This decline is being driven by a nationwide fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, rising economic pressure, and growing fears of a new mobilization wave. As President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings slide, the Kremlin is resorting to gerrymandering, candidate suppression, and internal debates about canceling the vote altogether to manage what would otherwise be an embarrassing outcome in the September 2026 State Duma elections.

Record-Low War Confidence

The share of Russians who believe the war in Ukraine is going well has fallen to 50% — the lowest level since independent pollster Levada Center began tracking the question in April 2022 . Only 8% of respondents in July 2026 described the war's course as "very successful" . A combined 28% of Russians now say the war is not going well — of those, 8% called it "very unsuccessful" .

Putin's approval rating has declined for seven consecutive months, reaching 65.6% in April 2026 according to state pollster VTsIOM — his lowest since before the war . By June, Levada recorded a further five-percentage-point drop to 74% . Ukrainian intelligence, citing its own data, estimates that United Russia's actual support hovers around 27%, trending toward 22% before election day ソ.

The independent Levada Center also found in February 2026 that only 24% of Russians wanted military operations to continue — the lowest level recorded — while 67% said Russia should move to peace negotiations .

Key Domestic Drivers

Fuel Crisis

Ukraine's sustained drone campaign has knocked out roughly a third of Russia's refining capacity . At the peak, Russian gasoline output covered only about 65% of domestic demand . Almost all of Russia's 83 regions imposed rationing or reported supply disruptions . Russian-controlled Crimea declared a state of emergency in June 2026, where gas was rationed at 20 liters per vehicle per week through prepaid coupons that sold out within minutes . Putin himself publicly admitted the shortages on state television, acknowledging Ukrainian attacks were creating "certain problems" . By late July, the worst had eased in Moscow through Siberian fuel rerouting and Indian imports, but Crimea remained acutely affected .

Long-Range Strikes Bringing War Home

Ukraine's drone campaign has expanded both depth and frequency since mid-2025, hitting oil refineries, fuel depots, export terminals, and logistics hubs far inside Russia . In July 2026, Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries warehouses — Russia's largest online retailer — in a blow that hit small businesses and drove home the war's reach . A drone strike in the Moscow region killed five civilians in early August . These attacks have exposed the Kremlin's inability to defend Russian cities and the capital ソ.

According to a survey by a Kremlin-linked public opinion agency in mid-May 2026, public anxiety in Russia about Ukrainian attacks is growing, with more respondents concerned about strikes at home than about developments at the front .

Economic Pressure and Mobilization Fears

The fuel crisis disrupted agricultural harvesting in Russia's grain belt , while rising prices and budget challenges have fueled economic anxiety . Rumors of a fresh mobilization wave in the fall, combined with recent high-casualty setbacks on the front, have further eroded public morale .

Political Challenges Ahead of September 2026 Duma Elections

United Russia's Expected Supermajority Is Fragile

The party is expected to retain a constitutional majority through administrative pressure, candidate filtering, and a crackdown that has removed genuine opposition options ソ. However, the Kremlin has resorted to aggressive gerrymandering — pressuring the Communist Party to sideline its strongest candidates in single-member districts ソ. Security officials have privately argued for postponing or canceling the elections altogether, worried that worsening economic conditions could produce an embarrassing result ソソ.

A Rare Pro-Peace Party Was Allowed to Run

Russia's Central Election Commission approved more than 400 candidates from the liberal Yabloko party to run on a pro-peace platform — an unusual concession that may serve as a controlled safety valve or signal the Kremlin's confidence it can contain dissent ソ.

The Credibility Gap

Ukrainian intelligence claims United Russia's true support is just 22–27% ソ. Even state-connected think tanks acknowledge the election outcome is "largely predetermined" by suppression rather than genuine popularity ソ. The VTsIOM open trust rating — where respondents name politicians unprompted — was quietly closed this spring after showing an uncomfortable decline, with Putin's open trust rating falling to 29.5% in March 2026, the lowest since the start of the full-scale war . The gap between the open trust rating and the closed-question approval rating suggests unease even within Kremlin-controlled polling . The Kremlin has also lowered its targets for turnout and United Russia's vote share, according to Russian media reports ソ.

Bottom Line

Russian public confidence in the Ukraine war has hit its lowest recorded point, driven by a nationwide fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, rising economic strain, and growing fears of mobilization. Putin's approval is sliding, and while United Russia is still expected to engineer a formal victory in September's Duma elections, the Kremlin is resorting to gerrymandering, candidate suppression, and debates about cancellation to manage what would otherwise be a poor showing. The war — once a distant event for many Russians — has become a visible, material burden for ordinary citizens for the first time.