क्या तेल 160 डॉलर तक जाएगा? ईरान का बड़ा दांव और ऊर्जा संकट की आहट

The Trigger: Why Iran Suspended Negotiations

The primary rationale Iran provided was Israel’s military actions in Lebanon. Tasnim labeled them the “continuing crimes of the Zionist regime” and argued that because a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon had been a precondition for the broader ceasefire framework, Israel’s campaign had voided the entire agreement . Tehran insisted that talks would not resume unless Israeli operations stopped in both Lebanon and Gaza .

This wasn't the first fraying of the diplomatic thread. A U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran had begun on February 28, 2026, which included the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei . In retaliation, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched strikes on Israeli and U.S.-allied targets. A temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan had been agreed on April 8, with a promise to reopen the strait, but it quickly collapsed as Iran restricted traffic and blamed Israeli strikes . Despite subsequent U.S. efforts, including a brief pause in military operations to pursue a "complete and final agreement," the diplomatic track remained on a knife's edge until the final June 1 suspension .

A Pincer Movement: Targeting Both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb

The announcement was not just about walking away from the table. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the so-called "Resistance Front," which includes allied groups in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, unveiled a new strategy. The plan is to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that had already been effectively shuttered since late February — and to simultaneously "activate" or open a new front at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait .

This is a strategically significant escalation. While Hormuz is the primary artery for Persian Gulf crude, condensate, and liquefied natural gas, Bab al-Mandeb is the gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Disrupting both chokepoints would severely constrain the ability of any remaining Gulf or redirected tanker traffic to reach European and North American markets, effectively squeezing global supply from two directions.

The Inventory Cliff: How Close Is the Bottom?

The most alarming signal for the global economy isn't just the geopolitical rhetoric — it's the data on what's left in the tanks. The world has been burning through oil stockpiles at an unprecedented clip for more than three months, using stored reserves to cushion the loss of roughly 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of Gulf crude and condensate production that remains curtailed by the conflict .

According to the IEA, global oil supply fell by an additional 1.8 million b/d in April to 95.1 million b/d, with total losses since February reaching 12.8 million b/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the Hormuz closure was 14.4 million b/d below pre-war levels . Those reserve buffers are now nearly exhausted, and the market is approaching what analysts call "tank bottoms" — the minimum operational level of inventories required for refineries and distribution systems to function normally .

Neil Chapman described the situation at Bernstein’s conference in stark terms: "You can debate whether that's going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see the price shoot up" . He forecast that dated Brent, the physical crude benchmark, would rocket to a $150–$160 range .

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth delivered a parallel warning, projecting that Brent could hit $150 within weeks. His concern hinged on the same dynamic: strategic petroleum reserves and private industry stockpiles that the U.S. and other Western nations used to stabilize markets in earlier phases of the crisis are now largely depleted .

The worst-case scenario, modeled by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, suggests that if the Strait remains largely shut through year-end, Brent could approach $200 a barrel, even as global demand contracts by 6 million b/d .

A Compounding Blow: Russia’s Jet Fuel Export Ban

As if the physical crude supply crunch were not enough, Russia added a second squeeze on a refined product critical to global mobility. Moscow imposed a ban on jet fuel exports, effective until November 30, 2026. The policy comes at a moment when refineries in Europe and Asia, already starved of crude feedstock from the Gulf, are struggling to produce aviation fuel. The ban eliminates a crucial alternative source of supply that might have partially compensated for the Middle East shortfall .

Analysts have warned that European airlines could face jet fuel rationing within weeks as a direct consequence of this overlapping crisis. The Russian ban amplifies the pressure on aviation fuel prices, which Wood Mackenzie’s severe-scenario analysis projects could surge toward $300 a barrel in major refining hubs by the end of the year .

What Comes Next

Iran’s conditions for returning to talks are clear: a complete halt to Israeli military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Until that happens, the dual blockade strategy will remain in effect. With critical inventory thresholds expected to break in a matter of weeks, the oil market is entering an extremely dangerous phase in which the physical availability of fuel, not just its price, will become the central problem for importing nations.

Even if a diplomatic breakthrough materializes, the damage to production infrastructure in the Gulf will take months to reverse. As the IEA has noted, pre-conflict production and trade patterns are not expected to resume until late 2026 or early 2027, and some Persian Gulf producers may never fully return to their pre-war output levels .