משבר הדגן בים השחור: כך תקיפות הדדיות באוגוסט 2026 שיתקו את הייצוא, סגרו נמלים מרכזיים והקפיצו את מחירי החיטה

By August 13, the KSK terminal — the last major facility still operating — also halted operations, with its owner, the Delo Group, citing the need to "ensure the safety of workers and infrastructure" . The Russian agriculture ministry said it was working to redirect cargo flows to alternative ports, but the disruption remained immediate and severe .

Ukraine — Odesa region

Russia simultaneously intensified missile and drone strikes on civilian vessels and port infrastructure in the Greater Odesa area, which includes the deep-water ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny. These three ports normally handle 90% of Ukraine's agricultural exports .

As of early August, no vessel had entered Odesa region ports for two weeks . Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry reported 35 attacks on vessels in port and 22 at sea in July alone, along with 67 strikes on port facilities . The Russian campaign effectively blockaded Ukraine's most crucial export corridor, with the New York Times reporting that strikes on "dozens of cargo ships" had halted nearly all shipping .

Drop in shipments

Ukraine

Ukraine's grain exports fell by 75% in the first two weeks of August compared to normal volumes . Between August 1 and 12, Ukraine exported only approximately 590,000 tonnes of grain — about 30% of the required volume .

On August 10, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi cut Ukraine's 2026/27 full-season export forecast by up to 12%, to 38–40 million tons, from a pre-war projection of 43 million tons . Separate Bloomberg estimates painted an even grimmer picture, suggesting agricultural exports could fall by more than half — to roughly 29.6 million tons — from earlier projections of 64.4 million tons .

Alternative routes via the Danube River and rail links can cover at most 50% of normal export volume, and Ukrainian officials said these would not reach that capacity until late August at the earliest .

Russia

Russia — the world's largest wheat exporter — suffered its own severe blow. The Novorossiysk halt alone was devastating because most of Russia's grain exports pass through its Black Sea ports . The US Department of Agriculture's August 12 report formally cut Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports to 46 million tons, citing disruption to Black Sea shipping since hostilities intensified in mid-July .

The Russian grain lobby (the Grain Union) warned that continued strikes could "choke off wheat exports" entirely, posing a direct threat to global food security . Bloomberg reported that Russian shipments in August were expected to be less than half the five-year average .

Global consequences and Asian buyer scramble

Wheat prices surge

Global wheat prices rose to their highest in two years, with US wheat futures hitting multi-week highs . Global wheat prices rose 5.8% in July alone, driven by Black Sea disruptions and heatwaves affecting Northern Hemisphere crops . By August, wheat prices had climbed almost 25% above their January 2026 levels, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute .

Politico reported that Ukraine's Agriculture Minister warned of a potential global food price increase of 25–30% if Black Sea disruptions persist, with consequences comparable to the 2022 food inflation crisis .

Asian buyers pivot to Australian wheat

Major importers across Southeast Asia — including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam — are turning to Australian wheat as their primary alternative . Traders reported that shipowners are refusing to operate in the Black Sea due to security risks, further constricting supply .

Offers for Black Sea milling wheat delivered to Southeast Asia rose by about $10 per ton for August-to-September shipments compared with the previous month, as disruptions squeezed supply even at the height of the harvest season .

Import-dependent nations feel the pinch

Egypt's wheat imports dropped 57.6% year-on-year in July, illustrating the immediate impact on import-dependent nations . Ukrainian farmers reported that domestic grain prices had fallen below production costs, threatening next year's sowing, while global benchmark Chicago wheat prices rose sharply .

The US Department of Agriculture's August 12 report formally cut forecasts for both Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, confirming that "every rival exporter's price has gone up" as a result . Combined export losses were estimated at 2.5 million to 4 million tonnes for each month the disruption persists .

Outlook

With both sides showing no sign of de-escalation and key infrastructure damaged on both sides of the Black Sea, the immediate outlook for global grain markets remains precarious. The disruption comes at the height of the harvest season, when both countries typically ship the bulk of their annual exports. If attacks on port infrastructure continue, import-dependent countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia may face sharply higher food costs — and potential famine in the most vulnerable nations .