האיסור הלילי של רוסיה בנובורוסיסק: מתקפת הכטב"

Ukraine's Maritime Drone Campaign: From Sea of Azov to Open Black Sea

The Novorossiysk ban is a direct response to Ukraine's dramatically escalated naval drone offensive. What began as targeted strikes on Russia's "shadow fleet" has become a sustained, large-scale campaign:

• Over 10 days in mid-July 2026, Ukraine struck 136 Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov .
• By July 17, the tally had reached 159 Russian ships hit in the first 12 days of the operation .
• On July 15 alone, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) struck 20 Russian vessels in a single overnight operation .
• As of July 22, Commander Robert Brovdi ("Madyar") reported another 13 vessels struck on July 21–22 — including 10 dry cargo ships, two tugboats, and a tanker .
• Earlier phases dating back to 2025 hit multiple shadow-fleet tankers and the Novorossiysk oil depot itself, which temporarily halted ~2.2 million barrels per day (2% of global supply) in November 2025 .

The campaign shifted from the Sea of Azov into the open Black Sea in mid-July, targeting both military logistics and commercial shipping linked to Russia's export infrastructure . The Guardian reported that by July 12, Russia had been forced to suspend shipping in the Sea of Azov after 90 vessels were struck . The Kerch Strait and Don-Azov Canal were also effectively sealed .

Grain Export Disruptions and Wheat Price Surge

Wheat Prices

CBOT wheat futures surged above 680 cents per bushel in mid-July and have continued climbing. Multiple reports place the benchmark near 701.50 cents/bushel as the disruption deepens . The price jump reflects market anxiety over the simultaneous disruption of both Russian and Ukrainian export capacity.

Russian July Export Forecasts Cut by a Third

Analysts at IKAR and Sovecon have slashed Russia's July wheat export forecasts. IKAR now expects exports below 2 million tonnes, while Sovecon projects just 2.0–2.5 million tonnes — a reduction of roughly one-third from pre-crisis expectations . Russian wheat sales had already fallen to their lowest level since 2008 as of July 2025, prompting government intervention to boost agricultural exports . The USDA's July 2026 WASDE report already reflects this supply pressure .

Novorossiysk Oil Exports

Novorossiysk handles roughly 2.2 million barrels per day of oil exports. A November 2025 Ukrainian drone attack on the port's oil depot temporarily halted all oil loadings . The current nighttime navigation ban, while less severe than a full shutdown, adds friction to an already constrained loading schedule and raises insurance and voyage costs for tanker operators .

Kazakhstan's CPC Oil Exports Halted

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) — the main export route for Kazakhstan's crude, which transits through Novorossiysk — stopped accepting Kazakh oil on July 21, 2026, after suspending Black Sea loadings . Tanker companies became unwilling to risk approaching the terminal due to the drone strikes on vessels near Novorossiysk .

This is not the first such disruption: a Ukrainian drone strike on a CPC loading facility in November 2025 had already cut Kazakhstan's oil output by 6%, and a subsequent attack in December damaged a second mooring . As of January 2026, Kazakhstan was estimated to have forfeited over 40 million barrels of exports due to CPC damage . Kazakhstan has limited alternative export routes, managing to divert only about 6% of lost volumes . The CPC terminal, which handles about 1.5% of global oil supply and 80% of Kazakhstan's exports, has been operating below capacity since mid-November 2025 .

Broader Strategic and Food-Supply Implications

Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 30% of global wheat exports. The simultaneous disruption of Russian export capacity (via the Novorossiysk ban and reduced July shipments) and continued Russian strikes on Ukraine's Odesa port infrastructure tightens global grain supply sharply . The USDA's July 2026 WASDE report already reflects this pressure .

Insurance premiums for vessels calling at Black Sea ports have spiked, and some shipping lines are declining to transit the region altogether, compounding the export bottleneck .

Crimea's Fuel Crisis

Ukraine's sustained strikes on tankers, fuel depots, and the Kerch Strait ferry and fuel infrastructure have systematically degraded fuel supply to the occupied peninsula. The BBC reported in July 2026 that Ukraine's drone division under Brovdi struck at least 25 vessels near Crimea in a single multi-day operation, many of them carrying fuel supplies . The cumulative effect of these attacks has created acute fuel shortages across Crimea, as resupply routes via the Kerch Bridge and maritime corridors are under constant threat .