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Military Degradation: Crippling Russia's War Machine

The drone campaign is designed to degrade Russia's ability to sustain its invasion:

• Energy infrastructure as a target: Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian oil refineries, fuel storage facilities, pumping stations, and even tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet" . The stated goal is to cripple fuel supplies to the Russian military while also diminishing Russia's oil export revenue .
• Quantified impact: Some assessments estimate that Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out roughly 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity, though analysts caution that Russia's ability to adapt and repair partially mitigates the damage . In September 2025, the campaign had escalated to the point of causing fuel shortages across Russia and choking off oil exports .
• Attacking launch platforms: The strikes on Russian military airfields are specifically intended to hinder Moscow's ability to conduct aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, targeting the launch points of glide bombs and missiles .

Negotiating Leverage: Pressuring the Kremlin

The aerial campaign is explicitly linked to Ukraine's diplomatic strategy:

• Raising the cost of war: By imposing real economic pain—domestic fuel shortages, reduced export revenue, and stretched defenses—Ukraine aims to make continued war more expensive for the Kremlin than a negotiated settlement . Military experts describe these strikes as both tactical blows and "symbolic maneuvers" that showcase Kyiv's ability to escalate costs .
• Leverage for talks: Forbes reported in December 2025 that Ukraine's increase in deep drone strikes was directly aimed at gaining leverage for peace talks, with the strikes providing Kyiv some of its first tangible victories in years . The strikes create a situation where Russia cannot simply wait out Ukraine's conventional ground forces, since the aerial threat operates on a different geography and timeline.
• Zelenskyy's negotiating posture: In his December 2025 New Year's address, Zelenskyy reinforced this by stating he would not sign a "feeble" peace deal that would only prolong the war—a position backed by the coercive power of the drone campaign .