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Zelenskyy has declared that the war has moved into a decisive "air domain" phase, stating that the struggle for air superiority will determine the war's outcome. This shift is supported by a massive intensification of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes that have hit Russian oil refineries, airfields, and logistics centers deep inside Russia. The aerial campaign serves a dual purpose: it militarily degrades Russia's war-fighting capability by disrupting fuel supplies and stretching air defenses, while simultaneously generating tangible negotiating leverage by imposing rising costs on the Kremlin ahead of any peace talks.

Zelenskyy's "Battle in the Sky" Characterization

In an interview with the Financial Times, President Zelenskyy explicitly framed the conflict's decisive phase as having moved from the ground and sea to the air. He stated: "We have moved into the air domain. And in the air... the outcome of the war with Russia will be decided in the skies." He characterized this as a struggle for air superiority that will determine the war's ultimate outcome . This framing marks a deliberate strategic shift, positioning Ukraine's growing aerial capabilities—particularly its domestic drone fleet—as the centerpiece of the war effort.

Evidence of Intensifying Ukrainian Drone Operations

Multiple authoritative sources document a dramatic escalation in Ukrainian drone operations throughout 2025:

• Scale of operations: Ukraine claimed that drone strikes eliminated 819,737 Russian military targets in 2025 alone, and for the first time, the country's drone systems forces became the dominant branch of the military .
• Deep strikes into Russia: Ukrainian drones have consistently hit targets hundreds of miles inside Russia, including the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery (one of Russia's four largest refineries), a military drone airfield, and an electronics manufacturing plant in a single August 2025 operation . In June 2025, Ukraine struck airfields deep in Russian territory, including a target extending into Siberia .
• Pressure on air defenses: By summer 2025, Ukraine's escalating drone offensive was stretching Moscow's air defense systems to their limits, forcing Russia to redeploy assets to protect critical infrastructure far from the front lines .
• Russian escalation: In response, Russia launched its largest air assault of the war in June 2025—479 drones and 20 missiles in a single night—demonstrating how the aerial domain has become the central axis of combat .

Military Degradation: Crippling Russia's War Machine

The drone campaign is designed to degrade Russia's ability to sustain its invasion:

• Energy infrastructure as a target: Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian oil refineries, fuel storage facilities, pumping stations, and even tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet" . The stated goal is to cripple fuel supplies to the Russian military while also diminishing Russia's oil export revenue .
• Quantified impact: Some assessments estimate that Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out roughly 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity, though analysts caution that Russia's ability to adapt and repair partially mitigates the damage . In September 2025, the campaign had escalated to the point of causing fuel shortages across Russia and choking off oil exports .
• Attacking launch platforms: The strikes on Russian military airfields are specifically intended to hinder Moscow's ability to conduct aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, targeting the launch points of glide bombs and missiles .

Negotiating Leverage: Pressuring the Kremlin

The aerial campaign is explicitly linked to Ukraine's diplomatic strategy:

• Raising the cost of war: By imposing real economic pain—domestic fuel shortages, reduced export revenue, and stretched defenses—Ukraine aims to make continued war more expensive for the Kremlin than a negotiated settlement . Military experts describe these strikes as both tactical blows and "symbolic maneuvers" that showcase Kyiv's ability to escalate costs .
• Leverage for talks: Forbes reported in December 2025 that Ukraine's increase in deep drone strikes was directly aimed at gaining leverage for peace talks, with the strikes providing Kyiv some of its first tangible victories in years . The strikes create a situation where Russia cannot simply wait out Ukraine's conventional ground forces, since the aerial threat operates on a different geography and timeline.
• Zelenskyy's negotiating posture: In his December 2025 New Year's address, Zelenskyy reinforced this by stating he would not sign a "feeble" peace deal that would only prolong the war—a position backed by the coercive power of the drone campaign .