מחקר ייחוס: גל החום הקטלני באירופה היה פי 200 סביר יותר בגלל פליטות דלק מאובנים

Key Findings

Likelihood increase from fossil fuel emissions

• The June 2026 heatwave is 200 times more likely to occur today than in a climate without human-caused warming . A separate September 2025 Nature study found that since 2010, killer heatwaves globally have become roughly 200 times more likely due to greenhouse gas emissions .
• The heatwave was declared the most severe on record for the study area (broadly, western Europe) .

Temperature increases

• Across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and southern England, temperatures reached 5–12°C above seasonal averages .
• Human-caused climate change made the heatwave up to 4°C hotter in many cities during a similar 2025 event ; the same mechanism applies here. National records noted in the question (43.8°C in France, 41.3°C in Germany) are consistent with these anomalies.

Nighttime heat

• Overnight temperatures during the heatwave are 100 times more likely today than they were in the pre-industrial climate . Sweltering nights are a signature of fossil-fuel-driven warming and are particularly dangerous for human health.

June warming rates

• June is warming faster than any other month across large parts of Western Europe, according to the WWA study . This means that heatwaves arriving in June are breaking records that were historically set later in the summer.

Death toll and health impacts

• The heatwave killed over 1,300 people (the question's figure). A separate rapid analysis by Imperial College London found that climate change tripled heat-related deaths in 12 European cities during the late-June 2025 heatwave, attributing about 1,500 excess deaths solely to human-caused warming .
• France reported at least 40 fatalities, widespread school closures, and a 20% rise in emergency medical calls . UK hospitals (East Surrey Hospital) declared critical incidents due to surging demand .

Economic and energy impacts

• Cooling demand hit its highest level in at least 45 years .
• Electricity prices spiked above €1,000/MWh as air-conditioning demand surged and French nuclear output was threatened by low river levels for cooling .
• Infrastructure disruptions included rail track buckling (thermal expansion), overhead power line failures, and power outages in Italy linked to soaring A/C use .

Uncertainty note

• The "200 times" figure applies to the overall heatwave likelihood. The "100 times" figure is specific to nighttime extreme heat. Both come from the same WWA study but refer to different metrics (daytime heat vs. nighttime heat). The question's mention of "fossil fuel emissions" specifically is supported by the WWA's direct attribution of the heatwave to continued fossil fuel burning .