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Disproportionate impact on low-income countries

• The report states that if the 33 percent average surge in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 continues, global grain production would decline by 0.9 percent in 2027, and more sharply — by 1.7 percent — in low-income countries .
• High-income countries will likely absorb these shocks, but low-income countries face deteriorating food security, with households forced to reduce food consumption and shift to cheaper items .
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption has been felt most acutely by major Asian importers and developing nations dependent on fuel and fertilizer shipments .

Stochastic modeling: 25% probability of lower incomes

The Outlook's own stochastic analysis — which models the frequency of recent shocks — finds that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels . Short-term risks are also significant: recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertilizer use are likely to affect agricultural production in 2027 .

Summary of confirmed findings

The central tension of the report is clear: productivity gains support a modest 9% income rise, but the return of frequent supply shocks — already materialized via the Hormuz closure — creates a one-in-four chance that the decade's gains are entirely wiped out, with the poorest countries bearing the brunt.