המצב העדין: הפסקת האש ארה

The agreement was brokered with Pakistan as the primary mediator throughout the conflict, with Qatar hosting the deconfliction channel talks in Doha . Pakistan mediated the original two-week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, and continued as the key intermediary .

2. Vance's claim — IRGC-CENTCOM deconfliction hotline in Doha

On June 25, 2026, Vice President JD Vance told the UK-based outlet UnHerd aboard Air Force Two that the U.S. and Iran had established a direct military deconfliction channel in Doha, Qatar . Vance stated that the arrangement would involve an IRGC representative and a CENTCOM representative "hanging out" together in Doha to resolve disputes on the ground and prevent escalation . Multiple outlets, including the Times of Israel and Iran International, reported that Vance described this as one of the biggest breakthroughs from the Switzerland talks .

3. IRGC's denial

Multiple reports indicate that Iranian officials and state media denied or pushed back against Vance's characterization of the arrangement . State media outlets in Tehran did not officially confirm the participation of an IRGC representative, and some Iranian sources indicated the talks might be canceled or misrepresented . As of June 26–27, no official IRGC confirmation of the hotline arrangement had been published .

4. The exchange of strikes

Iran's drone attack on M/V Ever Lovely (June 25, 2026)

On June 25, 2026, the IRGC launched a four-drone strike against the Singapore-flagged container ship M/V Ever Lovely (operated by Taiwan-based Evergreen Marine) while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz . One one-way attack drone struck the vessel's bridge and upper deck structure near the Omani coast . The attack violated the June 17 ceasefire MoU and forced the United Nations to temporarily pause its evacuation operation for seafarers in the region . U.S. officials attributed responsibility to Iran .

CENTCOM's retaliatory strikes (June 26, 2026)

On June 26, 2026, in response, U.S. warplanes bombed multiple Iranian military targets along Iran's southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island . CENTCOM stated it struck Iranian missile and drone facilities as a "powerful response" to the Ever Lovely attack . President Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire .

5. Reduced shipping traffic through the strait

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely reduced since the war began on February 28, 2026, when Iran effectively blocked the waterway . Even amid the fragile ceasefires, traffic remained far below normal levels:

• On April 12, 2026, during the first ceasefire, only three supertankers were reported navigating through the strait .
• The U.S. launched a task force in early May 2026 to help stranded vessels, but traffic remained minimal .
• The Ever Lovely attack on June 25 halted the recovery, with shipping sources reporting that transit volumes dropped sharply again immediately after the strike .
• Normally, roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies transit the strait .

6. Broader fragility of the diplomatic framework

The framework remains extremely fragile:

• The April 8, 2026, two-week ceasefire was violated by both sides numerous times before Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21 .
• The Islamabad MoU, despite being signed, has already been violated — notably by the IRGC's Ever Lovely strike on June 25, which occurred within days of signing .
• Iran's military declared the strait closed again on June 20, 2026, accusing the U.S. and Israel of violating the deal .
• The diplomatic scaffolding depends heavily on Pakistani and Qatari mediation, with no direct bilateral trust between Washington and Tehran . The denial by Iranian officials of Vance's deconfliction channel claim underscores the lack of mutual confidence .
• The core issues — Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and a permanent end to hostilities — have been deferred to a 60-day negotiation window, leaving the entire arrangement provisional .

Summary