הבנות ארה

What is certain: the U.S. Treasury has committed to issuing waivers for Iranian crude, petroleum products, and related services (banking, insurance, transportation) upon signing . Analysts estimate this could add roughly 1.5 million barrels per day to global supply . Immediate oil revenue potential is thus in the $60+ billion/year range, with growth possible over time.

Strait of Hormuz Transit Fees: Toll-Free for 60 Days, Then $2 Million Per Ship

Iran has established a layered and carefully branded fee system for the world's most vital oil passageway:

• 60-day toll-free window: Immediately after the MOU, vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz free of charge. Shipping operators must submit passage requests to the newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA.ir) at least 48 hours in advance .
• After 60 days: 'service fees' not 'tolls': Iran's chief negotiator Abbas Araghchi confirmed that after the grace period, ships will be charged fees for navigation, security, environmental protection, and insurance. Tehran argues international law forbids transit tolls on straits used for international navigation but permits "service fees"—a distinction it has already codified into domestic law .
• Fee level: Iran's parliament passed a bill in March 2026 introducing a rial-denominated fee system charging approximately $2 million per vessel, with an average reported range of $1.5–$2 million per crossing .
• Payment methods: Fees can be paid in cash, cryptocurrency (including Chinese yuan), goods, or barter .
• Governance after the 60 days: The MOU states that Iran will define long-term Hormuz administration jointly with Oman and other Gulf states, with the PGSA managing day-to-day operations .

Key MOU Provisions on Sanctions Relief and Hormuz Governance

The 14-point MOU contains several critical components. The table below summarizes the main provisions relevant to economic relief and maritime control:

An important caveat: sanctions relief is contingent on nuclear compliance. A senior U.S. official told The Guardian that "the sanctions relief in section seven is contingent upon the nuclear settlement outlined in section eight. The extent to which you comply with the nuclear stipulations will determine the sanctions relief you receive" .

International Pushback: Who Opposes the Deal and Why

• Israel: Strongly opposed the deal, arguing it legitimizes Iran's nuclear program and provides a revenue windfall for Tehran's regional proxies .
• Saudi Arabia and UAE: Expressed concern over Iran's unilateral fee regime and its implications for freedom of navigation. Gulf states are wary of any arrangement that gives Iran de facto control over the waterway .
• European allies: Several European governments warned that the MOU's sanctions relief lacks verification mechanisms and could enable Iranian missile proliferation .
• U.S. domestic critics: Republican hawks in Congress have signaled they will challenge any "termination of all types of sanctions" without Congressional approval, arguing the administration exceeded its authority .
• Gulf-led UN resolution: The U.S. and its Gulf allies proposed a UN resolution under Chapter 7 threatening Iran with sanctions if it does not halt "illegal tolls" and disclose mine placements in the Strait .

The MOU is not a final peace treaty; it is a 60-day framework. The real test—on nuclear verification, sanctions sequencing, and who ultimately controls the Strait of Hormuz—begins now.