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Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage

• Escalating toll in 2025–2026: UN monitors reported that civilian deaths and injuries in the first five months of 2025 were nearly 50% higher than the same period in 2024, with April 2025 recording 1,389 casualties (221 killed, 1,168 injured) — the highest monthly toll of the war at that time . A separate Russian strike on September 28, 2025, killed four people including a 12-year-old girl .
• Energy infrastructure: Russian strikes have systematically targeted Ukrainian energy sites. The November 2025 attack focused on energy facilities , and the pattern continued through 2026.

Attacks on Cargo Ships in the Black Sea

• Targeting civilian vessels: On December 30, 2025, Russia attacked port facilities and civilian ships in the Odesa region, striking two Panama-flagged vessels — Emmakris III and Captain Karam — using drones . This followed a December 23, 2025 attack that damaged port infrastructure and a vessel .
• Ongoing naval dimension: Russia has repeatedly targeted Odesa's port infrastructure throughout 2025, hitting grain storage and civilian facilities, with attacks intensifying after Moscow withdrew from the UN-sponsored grain deal . Ukraine has also struck back, claiming responsibility on November 29, 2025, for hitting two Russian "shadow fleet" tankers, Kairos and Virat, with naval drones .

Kremlin's Vow to Continue Strikes

• "Massive group strikes" policy: Following the June 18, 2026 drone attack on Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow would carry out regular "massive group strikes" against Ukraine, saying Putin had previously ordered an increase in the intensity of shelling . Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on June 2, 2026, that Russian forces were conducting "systematic strikes" against Ukrainian military infrastructure .
• Justification framework: Russia has consistently framed its retaliatory strikes as responses to what it calls Ukrainian "terrorist acts" against targets inside Russia .

Broader Escalation of the Four-Year War

• Daily drone warfare on Moscow: By early 2026, Russia reported that Ukraine was targeting Moscow with drone strikes every single day — a significant escalation from the earlier, less frequent attacks .
• Record-scale attacks: On May 13–14, 2026, Russia conducted what was described as its "largest aerial attack" since the invasion, launching 1,567 drones and 56 missiles at multiple Ukrainian cities . This came after a May 17, 2026 Ukrainian drone offensive that killed at least four across Russia .
• War of attrition: Civilian casualties have spiked dramatically. The UN documented that the first five months of 2025 saw nearly 50% more civilian casualties than the same period in 2024 . Overall, the war has inflicted nearly 56,000 civilian casualties, with 3.7 million internally displaced and 5.9 million registered as refugees .
• Stalemate with escalating reach: The conflict has evolved into a mutual deep-strike campaign — Ukraine systematically targets Russian energy infrastructure and refineries (causing fuel shortages inside Russia) , while Russia pounds Ukrainian cities, ports, and energy grids with drones and missiles in a cycle of attack and retaliation that shows no sign of de-escalation.