HSBC:n strategisti: Puolijohdeosakkeiden myyntiaalto on osto-opportuniteetti

What has driven the selloff

Hedge fund positioning

U.S. hedge funds net-sold information technology hardware and semiconductor stocks for a fourth consecutive week through early July, according to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data reported by Reuters . Net selling was concentrated in semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks . The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 4.2% in the week ending July 3 alone .

AI spending concerns

Investors have grown anxious about whether the hyperscalers' massive AI capital expenditure outlays are sustainable . This has triggered sharp selling of the biggest winners from the AI boom. An index of U.S. semiconductor companies was on track for its worst week since 2025's "Liberation Day" rout . The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had surged 82% in the first half of 2026, making the subsequent pullback particularly sharp .

Oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions

The geopolitical risk premium has been a major macro headwind:

• The U.S. struck Iran for multiple consecutive days, hitting a sanctioned oil tanker near Iran's main export terminal . Iran responded by firing upon American military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain .
• President Trump announced a reinstated blockade on Iranian ports, sending oil prices jumping and dampening risk appetite broadly .
• Brent crude surged on the energy supply disruption risk, compounding the risk-off mood .
• South Korea's Kospi tumbled as much as 5.3% on chip-led losses compounded by the Middle East standoff .

By mid-July, HSBC itself said "peak fear about the Iran oil spike has passed" and moved back to its "max" overweight equity stance , but the tech rout continued through Friday July 17 as the AI trade went into reverse .

Summary table of selloff drivers

The bottom line: Kettner used Friday's deepening rout to argue the opposite of the consensus fear — that semiconductor positioning has become so washed out that it is now a buying opportunity for global equities, not a reason to flee .