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What explains the nongravitational acceleration of near-Earth object 1998 KY26, considering its roughly 36-foot diameter, 52% sunlight reflectivity and 5.35-minute rotation period; why did Georgia Tech researchers Korbin Hansen and Masatoshi Hirabayashi’s Icarus study reject the
1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3] Acceleration and the ice explanation - KY26 1998 KY26’s acceler...
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- 1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3] ## Acceleration and the ice explanation - KY26
- 1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3]
- ## Acceleration and the ice explanation
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1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. 6
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Acceleration and the ice explanation
- KY26 is reported to be roughly 11 metres (36 feet) across, with an unusually high albedo of about 0.52 and a rotation period of 5.35 minutes.
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6 The 52% figure is an albedo estimate, not necessarily the fraction of all incident solar energy reflected in every direction.
- Hansen and Hirabayashi’s modeling finds that all modeled surface and interior locations have orbit-averaged temperatures too high for stable volatile ice in vacuum.
- This undermines sustained ice sublimation as the source of comet-like thrust; it does not, by itself, establish an artificial origin or prove that radiation forces explain every measured acceleration component.
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- Sunlight pressure and recoil from emitted surface heat are plausible alternatives, but the available excerpts do not verify a quantitative fit to KY26’s full acceleration, particularly its substantial out-of-plane component.
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8 Insufficient evidence to call that explanation settled.
Phobos 1 versus a natural asteroid
- Loeb, Hibberd and Crowl’s proposal identifies KY26 with the Soviet Phobos 1 probe lost in 1988; their follow-up describes its results as supporting the hypothesis but explicitly acknowledges that they cannot uniquely identify KY26 as that spacecraft.
- The orbital similarities and simplified spacecraft model matching eight brightness datasets described in your question would establish compatibility, not identity: the authors’ own stated conclusion is non-unique.
- The natural-origin characterization instead favors delivery from the inner main asteroid belt, with approximately 67% probability assigned to the ν6 resonance at its inner edge.
11 That is a model-based source inference, not direct proof of origin, but it provides a conventional asteroid explanation without requiring the Phobos 1 identification.
- Consequently, rejecting buried ice does not reject a rocky asteroid: those are separate questions.
NASA’s comments and the future test
- Fox’s reporting says that, on “Fox & Friends” on November 12, 2026, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman stated he had seen no evidence that KY26 was anything other than an asteroid.
13 The available excerpts do not establish his exact wording about continued monitoring or the absence of an imminent impact threat, so I cannot reliably quote those portions.
- Hayabusa2’s planned July 2031 rendezvous could provide direct observations capable of distinguishing natural terrain from recognizable spacecraft structures, making it a much stronger test than unresolved brightness measurements.
- The sources retrieved mention a closer Earth passage in 2039, but they do not independently establish the precise May date or approximately 10.1-million-mile distance in your question.
14 They also mention an intervening 2028 passage, so “next close approach in 2039” needs that qualification.
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1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3] ## Acceleration and the ice explanation - KY26
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1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3] ## Acceleration and the ice explanation - KY26 1998 KY26’s acceleration is real, but its cause is not conclusively established: the thermal study strongly disfavors long-lived buried ice, while the Phobos 1 identification remains an unproven hypothesis rather than a demonstrated discovery. [6][7][3]
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## Acceleration and the ice explanation
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