Why Are They Rushing to Go Public Now?

Three powerful forces are converging to push these companies onto public markets at the same time.

1. The Capital Demands Are Unprecedented

Training frontier AI models, building data centers, and launching satellite constellations are among the most capital-intensive endeavors in business history. Anthropic raised $65 billion in a final private round before its confidential S-1 filing on June 1 . SpaceX is seeking $75–$80 billion in fresh capital from its IPO, the largest raise ever . OpenAI is targeting a $60 billion-plus public offering . Private markets alone can no longer satisfy these demands; the public market is the only pool deep enough.

2. A First-Mover Race Is Underway

Whoever lists first sets the pricing benchmark for the rest. SpaceX, the farthest along, began its roadshow on June 5 and is expected to price as early as June 12 . OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 on May 22, targeting a September–Q4 2026 debut . Anthropic leapfrogged its rival by filing on June 1, just days after closing a $65 billion round that valued it at $965 billion — temporarily surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion private valuation . Each company is trying to get out the door before a competitor's poor post-IPO performance sours the market.

3. The Exit Window May Be Closing

With AI stocks already making up roughly 35% of the S&P 500, investor enthusiasm is at a peak . Bank of America's Michael Hartnett has noted that the top 10 AI stocks account for around 40% of total market capitalization, and the coming IPOs would push that group toward 50% — a level of concentration never seen before . The private backers who rode these valuations to nearly a trillion dollars each want to cash out before any potential correction.

The Numbers: What Each Company Is Targeting

SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 on April 1, 2026, and released it publicly on May 20. It is targeting a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX, with a $1.75–$2.0 trillion valuation and a $75–$80 billion raise, making it the largest IPO in history by a wide margin . The roadshow is underway, and pricing is expected between June 18 and 30, with a possible debut as soon as June 12 . The S-1 revealed that Starlink — SpaceX's satellite internet business — is the financial engine. It generated $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025 (61% of SpaceX's total, up nearly 50% year-on-year), posted an operating profit of $4.42 billion, and carried an EBITDA margin of 63% with 10.3 million subscribers . Q1 2026 alone saw Starlink produce $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating income .

OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 on May 22, 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley underwriting . The target valuation band is $850 billion to $1 trillion, against a last private round of $852 billion in March 2026 . The company is aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026 . It has approximately $25 billion in annualized revenue, but also roughly $14 billion in annual losses, burning cash heavily on compute infrastructure . One analysis suggested OpenAI needs an estimated $207 billion in additional capital through 2030 just to honor its existing compute commitments — making the IPO less a victory lap than a forced funding event .

Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 on June 1, 2026, after a $65 billion Series H that valued the company at roughly $965 billion . Its revenue run-rate has exploded from $1 billion to over $19 billion as of February 2026, and it has secured up to $40 billion from Google and $25 billion from Amazon . No IPO pricing date has been set, but the company is targeting a fall 2026 debut . Crucially, the widely-cited "$965 billion" figure is a private valuation, not a public IPO target — and some analysts estimate the actual IPO could price at a significant discount, potentially between $400 billion and $600 billion .

The Bull Case vs. The Bear Case

Expert opinion is split between two starkly different narratives.

The Bull Case: This Is Not Pets.com

Proponents argue that the 1999 dot-com analogy is misleading because these companies have real, often profitable, revenue . Unlike the dot-com era, when roughly 80% of IPOs had no profits, SpaceX's Starlink is a genuine cash machine . In Q1 2026 alone, Starlink generated more operating income ($1.19 billion) than the entire launch business produced in revenue . Anthropic's revenue has grown nearly 20× in about a year, from $1 billion to $19 billion run-rate . OpenAI has a globally recognized brand, hundreds of millions of users, and $25 billion in annualized revenue .

Bulls also argue that the concentration in AI stocks is a reflection of genuine structural shifts — not just speculative froth. As one analysis summarized, the dot-com analogy "is most useful as a warning about the sequence of events — capex peak → utilization disappointment → guidance cuts → cascade — rather than as a 1:1 template" .

The Bear Case: The Multiples Are Historically Extreme

The revenue multiples at which these companies are being valued are staggering, even by the standards of high-growth tech.

• SpaceX — At $1.75 trillion and roughly $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, it is trading at approximately 94× trailing revenue . By comparison, even Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon at comparable stages never approached these levels. On a forward basis using 2026 projections of $28.5 billion, the multiple is still roughly 61× .
• Anthropic — At its $965 billion Series H pricing, the company trades at about 21× current annualized revenue run-rate .
• OpenAI — At $852 billion, the company prices at a wide multiple of trailing revenue while remaining deeply unprofitable, with losses of roughly $14 billion .

The most prominent institutional bear is Morningstar. The independent research firm published a fair value estimate of just $780 billion for SpaceX — less than half the $1.75 trillion IPO target — and warned investors that they "will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels" after the offering . Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens anchored the valuation to SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses and applied probability weighting to the AI segment's various development scenarios .

Other analysts have reached similar conclusions using different models. One sum-of-the-parts analysis pegged SpaceX's median fair value near $1.25 trillion, roughly 30% below the IPO target . Another projected that even if SpaceX reaches $50 billion in revenue by 2029 and trades at a generous 35× multiple, the implied market cap would be exactly $1.75 trillion — meaning the IPO is pricing in nearly a decade of flawless execution today .

The Dot-Com Question: Bubble Signal or Rational Pricing?

The dot-com comparisons are not just rhetorical. In inflation-adjusted terms, the combined value of these three IPOs would exceed the valuation of every U.S. IPO from 1995 to 2000 combined . A Reuters analysis noted that the three companies are, as a group, losing money — a combination without precedent in U.S. market debuts at this scale .

Yet the comparison is imperfect. The AI cycle has so far "not produced the negative-earnings IPO frenzy that characterized late-stage dot-com mania," one analysis noted . Starlink is profitable and fast-growing. The underlying technologies — large language models, reusable rockets, satellite broadband — have demonstrable utility and adoption that the concept stocks of 1999 lacked .

The more precise risk is not that these companies are worthless, but that they are worth significantly less than their IPO prices suggest. The gap between private secondary-market euphoria and what public-market institutional investors are willing to pay is the central uncertainty. Some analysts predict Anthropic's public valuation could land 40–60% below its $965 billion private round . If the first of these IPOs trades poorly, it could create a cascade that reprices the entire AI capex cycle.

The Market Absorption Problem

The timing itself is a risk factor. SpaceX is seeking $75–$80 billion in June . OpenAI could seek $60 billion or more in September . Anthropic's raise size is not yet set but will likely be in the tens of billions. Even in a liquid market, absorbing over $200 billion in new issuance from a single sector in a matter of months would be historically unprecedented .

Institutional investors with existing concentrated positions in large-cap tech may be forced to sell existing holdings to make room for these new listings, creating mechanical selling pressure across the market . The later filers — OpenAI and Anthropic — could face significantly worse pricing if SpaceX's debut is rocky .

What to Watch Next

The most important data points that will resolve the bull/bear debate are still ahead. For SpaceX, all eyes are on the IPO pricing on or around June 12 and how the stock trades in its first weeks . For OpenAI and Anthropic, the public release of their confidential S-1 filings — expected roughly 21 days before their respective roadshows — will provide the first definitive look at revenue, gross margins, profitability, and risk factors .

The question is not whether AI and commercial space are genuinely transformative industries. The question is whether public-market investors, staring at 94× revenue multiples and $14 billion annual losses, will pay the same prices that private-market investors paid in the euphoric final months before the window opened — or whether this historic clustering of mega-IPOs will mark the moment the market drew a line.

Why Are They Rushing to Go Public Now?

Three powerful forces are converging to push these companies onto public markets at the same time.

1. The Capital Demands Are Unprecedented

Training frontier AI models, building data centers, and launching satellite constellations are among the most capital-intensive endeavors in business history. Anthropic raised $65 billion in a final private round before its confidential S-1 filing on June 1 . SpaceX is seeking $75–$80 billion in fresh capital from its IPO, the largest raise ever . OpenAI is targeting a $60 billion-plus public offering . Private markets alone can no longer satisfy these demands; the public market is the only pool deep enough.

2. A First-Mover Race Is Underway

Whoever lists first sets the pricing benchmark for the rest. SpaceX, the farthest along, began its roadshow on June 5 and is expected to price as early as June 12 . OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 on May 22, targeting a September–Q4 2026 debut . Anthropic leapfrogged its rival by filing on June 1, just days after closing a $65 billion round that valued it at $965 billion — temporarily surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion private valuation . Each company is trying to get out the door before a competitor's poor post-IPO performance sours the market.

3. The Exit Window May Be Closing

With AI stocks already making up roughly 35% of the S&P 500, investor enthusiasm is at a peak . Bank of America's Michael Hartnett has noted that the top 10 AI stocks account for around 40% of total market capitalization, and the coming IPOs would push that group toward 50% — a level of concentration never seen before . The private backers who rode these valuations to nearly a trillion dollars each want to cash out before any potential correction.

The Numbers: What Each Company Is Targeting

SpaceX confidentially filed its S-1 on April 1, 2026, and released it publicly on May 20. It is targeting a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX, with a $1.75–$2.0 trillion valuation and a $75–$80 billion raise, making it the largest IPO in history by a wide margin . The roadshow is underway, and pricing is expected between June 18 and 30, with a possible debut as soon as June 12 . The S-1 revealed that Starlink — SpaceX's satellite internet business — is the financial engine. It generated $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025 (61% of SpaceX's total, up nearly 50% year-on-year), posted an operating profit of $4.42 billion, and carried an EBITDA margin of 63% with 10.3 million subscribers . Q1 2026 alone saw Starlink produce $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating income .

OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 on May 22, 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley underwriting . The target valuation band is $850 billion to $1 trillion, against a last private round of $852 billion in March 2026 . The company is aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026 . It has approximately $25 billion in annualized revenue, but also roughly $14 billion in annual losses, burning cash heavily on compute infrastructure . One analysis suggested OpenAI needs an estimated $207 billion in additional capital through 2030 just to honor its existing compute commitments — making the IPO less a victory lap than a forced funding event .

Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 on June 1, 2026, after a $65 billion Series H that valued the company at roughly $965 billion . Its revenue run-rate has exploded from $1 billion to over $19 billion as of February 2026, and it has secured up to $40 billion from Google and $25 billion from Amazon . No IPO pricing date has been set, but the company is targeting a fall 2026 debut . Crucially, the widely-cited "$965 billion" figure is a private valuation, not a public IPO target — and some analysts estimate the actual IPO could price at a significant discount, potentially between $400 billion and $600 billion .

The Bull Case vs. The Bear Case

Expert opinion is split between two starkly different narratives.

The Bull Case: This Is Not Pets.com

Proponents argue that the 1999 dot-com analogy is misleading because these companies have real, often profitable, revenue . Unlike the dot-com era, when roughly 80% of IPOs had no profits, SpaceX's Starlink is a genuine cash machine . In Q1 2026 alone, Starlink generated more operating income ($1.19 billion) than the entire launch business produced in revenue . Anthropic's revenue has grown nearly 20× in about a year, from $1 billion to $19 billion run-rate . OpenAI has a globally recognized brand, hundreds of millions of users, and $25 billion in annualized revenue .

Bulls also argue that the concentration in AI stocks is a reflection of genuine structural shifts — not just speculative froth. As one analysis summarized, the dot-com analogy "is most useful as a warning about the sequence of events — capex peak → utilization disappointment → guidance cuts → cascade — rather than as a 1:1 template" .

The Bear Case: The Multiples Are Historically Extreme

The revenue multiples at which these companies are being valued are staggering, even by the standards of high-growth tech.

• SpaceX — At $1.75 trillion and roughly $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, it is trading at approximately 94× trailing revenue . By comparison, even Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon at comparable stages never approached these levels. On a forward basis using 2026 projections of $28.5 billion, the multiple is still roughly 61× .
• Anthropic — At its $965 billion Series H pricing, the company trades at about 21× current annualized revenue run-rate .
• OpenAI — At $852 billion, the company prices at a wide multiple of trailing revenue while remaining deeply unprofitable, with losses of roughly $14 billion .

The most prominent institutional bear is Morningstar. The independent research firm published a fair value estimate of just $780 billion for SpaceX — less than half the $1.75 trillion IPO target — and warned investors that they "will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels" after the offering . Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens anchored the valuation to SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses and applied probability weighting to the AI segment's various development scenarios .

Other analysts have reached similar conclusions using different models. One sum-of-the-parts analysis pegged SpaceX's median fair value near $1.25 trillion, roughly 30% below the IPO target . Another projected that even if SpaceX reaches $50 billion in revenue by 2029 and trades at a generous 35× multiple, the implied market cap would be exactly $1.75 trillion — meaning the IPO is pricing in nearly a decade of flawless execution today .

The Dot-Com Question: Bubble Signal or Rational Pricing?

The dot-com comparisons are not just rhetorical. In inflation-adjusted terms, the combined value of these three IPOs would exceed the valuation of every U.S. IPO from 1995 to 2000 combined . A Reuters analysis noted that the three companies are, as a group, losing money — a combination without precedent in U.S. market debuts at this scale .

Yet the comparison is imperfect. The AI cycle has so far "not produced the negative-earnings IPO frenzy that characterized late-stage dot-com mania," one analysis noted . Starlink is profitable and fast-growing. The underlying technologies — large language models, reusable rockets, satellite broadband — have demonstrable utility and adoption that the concept stocks of 1999 lacked .

The more precise risk is not that these companies are worthless, but that they are worth significantly less than their IPO prices suggest. The gap between private secondary-market euphoria and what public-market institutional investors are willing to pay is the central uncertainty. Some analysts predict Anthropic's public valuation could land 40–60% below its $965 billion private round . If the first of these IPOs trades poorly, it could create a cascade that reprices the entire AI capex cycle.

The Market Absorption Problem

The timing itself is a risk factor. SpaceX is seeking $75–$80 billion in June . OpenAI could seek $60 billion or more in September . Anthropic's raise size is not yet set but will likely be in the tens of billions. Even in a liquid market, absorbing over $200 billion in new issuance from a single sector in a matter of months would be historically unprecedented .

Institutional investors with existing concentrated positions in large-cap tech may be forced to sell existing holdings to make room for these new listings, creating mechanical selling pressure across the market . The later filers — OpenAI and Anthropic — could face significantly worse pricing if SpaceX's debut is rocky .

What to Watch Next

The most important data points that will resolve the bull/bear debate are still ahead. For SpaceX, all eyes are on the IPO pricing on or around June 12 and how the stock trades in its first weeks . For OpenAI and Anthropic, the public release of their confidential S-1 filings — expected roughly 21 days before their respective roadshows — will provide the first definitive look at revenue, gross margins, profitability, and risk factors .

The question is not whether AI and commercial space are genuinely transformative industries. The question is whether public-market investors, staring at 94× revenue multiples and $14 billion annual losses, will pay the same prices that private-market investors paid in the euphoric final months before the window opened — or whether this historic clustering of mega-IPOs will mark the moment the market drew a line.