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Why the U.S. and China Need a Shared Way to Measure AI Progress
The U.S. and China should regularly compare evidence about AI capabilities and their effects before deciding how to respond.
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- The U.S. and China should regularly compare evidence about AI capabilities and their effects before deciding how to respond.
- One sign of change: a source reports that more than 90% of 430,000 Chinese microdrama titles uploaded in the first eight months of 2026 were AI generated—a measure of titles brought online, not necessarily commerciall...
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why should Beijing and Washington establish a shared, recurring process to measure rapidly advancing AI capabilities before deciding how to. Article summary: Beijing and Washington should establish a recurring, shared assessment because effective policy depends on knowing what AI can actually do, how quickly that is changing, and whether people can still control it—not merely. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated, education. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, char
A shared, recurring assessment of AI progress could give Washington and Beijing a clearer basis for policy than incident communication alone. The case is straightforward: governments need to understand what systems can do, how quickly capabilities are changing, and where the effects are appearing before they decide how to respond. A South China Morning Post opinion makes that measurement question central to continued U.S.–China AI discussions. 20
Why measure before choosing a response?
The opinion’s rising-tide framing captures the problem: it is difficult to plan a response if the scale and speed of change are unclear. A one-time assessment can quickly become stale; recurring measurements could help governments compare evidence over time instead of relying on broad impressions of AI progress. 20
The need is not limited to laboratory benchmarks. AI’s effects can show up in production and employment as well as in technical tests. The South China Morning Post points to the rapid adoption of AI in China’s microdrama industry as an example of work being reshaped. 20 A separate industry account reports that more than 90% of 430,000 microdrama titles brought online in China during the first eight months of 2026 were AI-generated. That figure counts titles uploaded, not necessarily commercial releases.
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The statistic illustrates a change in production, but it does not by itself establish how many jobs were displaced or how broadly the same effects will spread. A useful assessment should separate what is measured from what remains uncertain.
What a shared assessment could track
A practical bilateral process could compare evidence on several fronts:
- Capabilities over time: Use repeatable evaluations to see whether systems are improving at specific tasks, rather than treating a single result as a complete picture.
- Human control: Examine what oversight and intervention are possible in the tested conditions, and describe those conditions clearly.
- Effects beyond the lab: Track changes in work and other areas affected by AI, while distinguishing observed outcomes from forecasts.
- Uncertainty and limits: Record where results are difficult to reproduce, where measurements do not capture real-world use, and what evidence is still missing.
These are elements of a proposed approach, not claims that the two governments already share such a system. The central idea is to make the evidence comparable and refresh it regularly enough to inform decisions.
A meeting is an opening, not a substitute for measurement
Diplomatic exchanges can create space to discuss AI, but a declaration of shared concern cannot answer whether systems’ capabilities or effects are changing. A recurring assessment would give governments a more concrete basis for those discussions and could help them distinguish areas of agreement from unresolved questions. The opinion’s core argument is that continued dialogue matters, but preparation also depends on understanding the pace of change. 20
That distinction is especially useful ahead of any anticipated leaders’ meeting: use the opportunity to establish an ongoing process, rather than treating the meeting itself as the assessment. Better shared evidence would not dictate a single policy response, but it could make the choices—and the uncertainties behind them—clearer.
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The U.S. and China should regularly compare evidence about AI capabilities and their effects before deciding how to respond.
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The U.S. and China should regularly compare evidence about AI capabilities and their effects before deciding how to respond. One sign of change: a source reports that more than 90% of 430,000 Chinese microdrama titles uploaded in the first eight months of 2026 were AI generated—a measure of titles brought online, not necessarily commerciall...
Sources
scmp.comUS and China must join hands to measure rising AI tide
verticalobserver.comChina's Short Drama (Duanju) Industry: Size and Platforms
technode.comChina's AI microdrama boom joins a global surge in mobile viewing