TD Securities’ $5,000 Gold Forecast Survives the Fed-Driven Dip

Gold’s drop below $4,300 after the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike looks, to TD Securities, like a setback within a longer bull market rather than the end of one. Its forecast depends on investment and central-bank demand remaining strong enough to withstand near-term pressure from interest rates and the dollar. 617

Why the Fed hike hurt gold

The Fed raised rates and signaled that further increases could follow. The dollar strengthened, making non-yielding bullion less attractive; spot gold was down 1.2% at $4,240.10 an ounce by 3:10 p.m. ET on September 16. The decision was not universally described as a surprise: one report called the quarter-point increase widely expected. 1720

That reaction explains the immediate selloff, but not necessarily gold’s path through 2027. TD Securities argues that renewed investor appetite and official-sector buying can support another advance above $5,000 an ounce, even while further Fed hikes pose a risk. In a separate long-term projection, TD says lower interest rates, a weaker dollar and firmer demand could support prices above its $5,350-per-ounce average for the second quarter of 2027. Those are conditional forecasts, not a near-term price floor. 512

The demand behind TD’s forecast

Reporting on TD’s outlook cites about 6.3 million ounces of gold-ETF inflows since July and central-bank purchases of nearly 70 tonnes a month over the preceding three months. TD also sees speculative bullish positioning improving without yet looking as crowded as at earlier peaks, leaving room for more investors to add exposure. Flows and positioning can change, however, particularly if higher rates persist. 246

China adds another source of demand, but its different buying channels should not be conflated. A report on the People’s Bank of China says it bought 20 tonnes in July; separately, State Street Global Advisors reports that imports into China’s onshore market reached 1,000 tonnes in January–July 2026. Imports are not the same thing as central-bank purchases, and neither figure guarantees that Chinese demand can offset a stronger dollar. 137

How other forecasts compare

Goldman Sachs has reportedly maintained a $5,400-per-ounce end-2027 forecast, also emphasizing central-bank demand. TD’s separately reported $5,350 target for the third quarter of 2027 is closer in timing to that figure than its second-quarter average projection. By contrast, BMI’s $4,400 forecast is an average for 2026—not a rival end-2027 target. Comparing the numbers without their dates and measures obscures the disagreement. 791230

What could change the outlook next?

The October 28 Fed decision is the nearer-term test. A pause or softer guidance could ease pressure from rates and give gold a better chance of regaining $4,400; another hike or a firm signal of further tightening could prolong the headwind. These are scenarios, not predictions of the decision or the price response. 18

Around $4,230, traders would be watching a nearby downside area rather than an exact support line: reported September prices reached roughly $4,240 after the hike, while one technical assessment placed a lower band near $4,225. $4,000 represents a deeper downside scenario, not a guaranteed floor. Whether gold eventually clears $5,000 depends less on any single chart level than on the balance between sustained buying and the path of rates and the dollar. 1719312