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Why Anthropic’s IPO Could Matter More to Markets Than the US Midterms
Max Kettner sees Anthropic’s proposed IPO as a potentially more decisive market event than the US midterms because it could test whether investors still have confidence in AI stocks.
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- Max Kettner sees Anthropic’s proposed IPO as a potentially more decisive market event than the US midterms because it could test whether investors still have confidence in AI stocks.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why does HSBC strategist Max Kettner consider Anthropic’s planned IPO a bigger test for markets than the US midterm elections, and how do hi. Article summary: Kettner sees Anthropic’s IPO as a potentially bigger market test than the midterms because it could determine whether confidence in the AI trade stabilizes after the selloff; Bloomberg reports that he explicitly regards . Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts w
HSBC strategist Max Kettner’s concern is not simply how much Anthropic might be worth. He sees its proposed IPO as a possible test of whether investors will still back the AI trade after a sharp selloff—and whether demand lasts once the shares begin trading. 2
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Why the IPO could outweigh the midterms
Kettner lowered his equity view from maximum overweight to neutral two weeks before Thursday’s selloff. His stated concern was that the technology narrative had turned unfavorable regardless of how companies approached capital spending. 17
He has also questioned how much risk the US midterms could remove, given that investors had done little hedging ahead of the election, according to a report of his comments. 38 By contrast, Anthropic’s IPO could offer investors a direct, visible test of their appetite for AI valuations. Bloomberg reported that Kettner sees market stabilization as potentially hinging on the offering.
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That does not mean the IPO will settle the debate over AI stocks. It means the debut could be a powerful signal: a weak reception might deepen doubts about the trade, while sustained demand could help steady sentiment. These are possible market interpretations, not guaranteed outcomes.
Kettner sees a selloff, not yet a broken AI thesis
Kettner has said the selloff does not, by itself, show that the fundamental case for AI has changed. He has pointed instead to positioning and forced selling as possible drivers of the volatility. 14
That distinction helps explain why he is cautious about markets while still seeing a possible role for the IPO. If selling pressure reflects investors cutting exposure rather than a broad reassessment of AI businesses, an offering that attracts durable demand could help restore confidence. But the sources do not establish that the selling is only mechanical or that a successful IPO would end the volatility.
IPO valuation expectations have moved lower
Prospective buyers were discussing a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion ahead of formal IPO marketing, Bloomberg reported. 1 That is below the $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion range investors had previously discussed with bankers.
5 Some buyers were reportedly considering figures as low as $1.1 trillion.
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These are investor estimates, not a final offer price or an official valuation. Anthropic’s public filing said the offering’s price range had not yet been set. 46
Kettner reportedly described roughly $1 trillion—not $1.5 trillion—as a more favorable valuation for a market-clearing debut, and warned that a 20% to 30% first-week decline would be a bad outcome. 38 Anthropic was previously valued at $965 billion, according to figures reported in an IPO overview.
34 The comparison gives context to the discussion, but it does not make the prospective IPO valuation certain.
Why aftermarket performance may matter more than the headline
A high valuation can attract attention before an IPO, but the early trading record would show whether public-market buyers are willing to hold the shares at that price. Kettner’s warning about a sharp first-week fall points to that distinction: the market’s response after listing could matter more than a headline valuation alone. 38
The IPO is still proposed, and neither the final offering price nor the number of shares had been set in Anthropic’s filing. 46 So the valuation ranges should be read as negotiations and expectations—not a settled market verdict.
For Kettner, the stakes extend beyond Anthropic itself. If the offering draws sustained demand, it could support the view that confidence in AI remains intact; if it struggles, investors may take that as a warning about the wider AI trade. The IPO could therefore become a market test—but not a definitive answer on its own.
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Max Kettner sees Anthropic’s proposed IPO as a potentially more decisive market event than the US midterms because it could test whether investors still have confidence in AI stocks.