Why Jurrien Timmer Thinks Bitcoin’s Next Bull Cycle May Have Begun

Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer sees signs that Bitcoin may have started a new cyclical bull market. His case combines Bitcoin’s rebound after holding near $60,000 for almost a year, a long-term power-law model and a Bitcoin-to-gold indicator that has turned positive. The model points to a possible $300,000 by 2029, but that is a projection—not a guaranteed outcome. 4344

Why the $60,000 level matters to Timmer

Timmer describes the nearly year-long period around the $60,000 support zone as about the length of a typical Bitcoin “winter.” Because Bitcoin has since moved higher, he says a new four-year cycle bull market may be underway. That is his interpretation of the price pattern, rather than confirmation that a new cycle has definitively begun. 43

The level also matters to his power-law analysis. In a Fidelity discussion, Timmer described a support line drawn below the model’s trend line and cautioned that the chart is not a guarantee that Bitcoin will keep rising. In this framework, holding near support helps keep the longer-term pattern intact; it does not prove the pattern will continue. 22

How the power-law model leads to a $300,000 projection

A power-law model describes Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Timmer’s latest stated projection is that its “power law math” points to about $300,000 in 2029 if the current cyclical-bull-market thesis holds. The $60,000 support test is part of the reason he sees the model as relevant now, but the cited posts do not make support alone a calculation of that target. 2244

Like any projection based on a historical pattern, the estimate depends on the pattern continuing. Timmer’s Fidelity discussion explicitly warns against treating the chart as a promise of a steadily rising price. 22

What the Bitcoin-to-gold signal adds

Timmer also points to the 52-week Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score, which he says turned positive after a deeply negative reading. He notes that similar turns have generally confirmed a bottom in the past. This offers a second, relative-strength signal: Bitcoin may be improving compared with gold. It does not independently produce the $300,000 target. 43

The two indicators play different roles in his argument. The power-law model supplies the long-term price framework; the Bitcoin-to-gold signal supports his view that a cycle low may have passed. Neither establishes when a bull market began or guarantees future performance. 224344

Bitcoin’s place in Timmer’s wider market view

Timmer frames Bitcoin alongside gold as part of a broader portfolio, not as an asset that must replace everything else. He has described Bitcoin as a junior player on a “hard money” team led by gold, and Fidelity’s discussion also presents both assets as potential diversifiers in a conventional stock-and-bond portfolio. 1522

He connects the cycle thesis to a wider macro view, too. In his post, Timmer says a higher-cost-of-capital environment could prompt governments to use financial repression. That is his interpretation of the macro backdrop, not a certainty about what governments will do or how Bitcoin will respond. 43

What could weaken the case

The thesis depends on support holding and on the historical relationships in Timmer’s model and indicator remaining useful. A sustained break below the support area, or a reversal in Bitcoin’s relative performance against gold, would weaken the signals he cites. The available sources do not establish that either signal can predict the timing or outcome of the next market cycle. 112243

So Timmer’s $300,000-by-2029 figure is best read as a model-based possibility within a broader market thesis—not as a price floor, a certainty or a standalone reason to expect a bull market.