Why SoftBank Shares Fell After Oracle’s Project Jupiter Warning

SoftBank Group shares fell 3.1% to 6,154 yen on September 25, 2026, after Oracle’s force majeure notice over Project Jupiter drew attention to a basic constraint on AI infrastructure: a data center needs reliable power before it can deliver computing capacity. The notice did not mean Oracle had canceled the project, but it raised questions about whether construction, power and financing will line up on schedule.102

What Oracle’s notice means—and what it does not

Oracle issued a force majeure notice to a Blue Owl unit developing Project Jupiter, citing possible delays in securing power. Reuters reported that the notice was intended to protect Oracle against potential delay-related payment obligations. A force majeure notice is not, by itself, evidence that a project has been abandoned.26

The reported scale of the delay is uncertain. A person familiar with the deal told Reuters that the project faced a possible one-year delay, but that is a reported risk—not a confirmed revised completion date.1 The supplied reporting describes a large New Mexico campus, but does not substantiate the 2.5-gigawatt capacity figure sometimes attached to it, so that number should not be treated as confirmed here.24

Assurances offer reassurance, not a power solution

Oracle said Project Jupiter remained on its planned schedule. Blue Owl said the notice did not change its financial commitments to the multi-year project.26 Those statements are relevant, but they do not establish that the site’s power requirements have been resolved or rule out delays.

That distinction helps explain why the notice mattered to investors: it brought a potential execution problem into focus even as both companies continued to express commitment to the project. The immediate share move reflects market concern, not proof that the campus will miss its target.102

Why SoftBank’s borrowing makes timing important

Just before the share decline, SoftBank raised $11.1 billion through dollar- and euro-denominated high-yield bonds to fund its AI investments, including its OpenAI bet.19 Reuters reported that the scale of SoftBank’s AI-related borrowing has pushed up its borrowing costs and the cost of insuring its debt against default.19

That makes delays financially relevant even without a project cancellation: if infrastructure takes longer to become operational, the expected path from investment to revenue can also take longer, while financing obligations remain. This is a risk to monitor, not evidence that SoftBank cannot meet its obligations or that Stargate will fail.119

SB Energy’s IPO delay adds to investor scrutiny

SoftBank-backed data center developer SB Energy delayed its expected IPO amid valuation and customer-concentration concerns, Reuters reported.42 That is a separate development from Project Jupiter, but it adds to the signs that investors are examining how AI infrastructure projects will be financed and how quickly they can be executed.42

The supplied sources do not establish that OpenAI also delayed a planned IPO. The two situations should not be conflated: the reported IPO delay concerns SB Energy.42

The broader risk: infrastructure must arrive in sequence

Project Jupiter’s power question illustrates a wider challenge for large AI data center plans. Financing and customer demand are not enough on their own; the facilities also need power and timely delivery. When those pieces fall out of sequence, investors may reassess the timing and cost of returns, especially for companies funding ambitious AI plans with high-yield debt.1219

For SoftBank, the notice is a warning signal about execution and financing risk—not a verdict on Stargate. Oracle and Blue Owl have offered assurances, but the decisive evidence will be whether the campus secures power and progresses on schedule.26