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Why Oil Rose on Oct. 12 Despite the Russia–Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
Oil reversed its early losses on Oct. 12 as Middle East supply concerns outweighed hopes for more Russian diesel and an energy ceasefire.
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Key takeaways
- Oil reversed its early losses on Oct. 12 as Middle East supply concerns outweighed hopes for more Russian diesel and an energy ceasefire.
- The market’s focus shifted from possible extra fuel supplies to the risk that attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers could disrupt regional oil flows.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why did oil prices rise on Monday, October 12, despite President Donald Trump’s proposed Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire” and Russian diese. Article summary: Oil rose on Monday, October 12, 2026 because fears of Middle Eastern supply disruption outweighed the prospect of additional Russian diesel and Trump’s announced Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire.” The market initially we. Topic tags: general, news, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers
Oil prices finished higher on Monday, October 12, 2026, even after an announced Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire” and a Russian diesel supply deal initially encouraged selling. The reversal reflected a shift in attention: traders weighed the prospect of additional fuel against fresh threats to Middle East supply and shipping. 10
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Brent and WTI reversed their early losses
In early Asian trading, Brent fell $1.37, or 1.31%, to $103.35 a barrel, while WTI dropped $1.30, or 1.42%, to $90.55. The declines followed expectations that the announcements could ease concerns about Russian fuel supplies and attacks on energy infrastructure. 10
By settlement, both benchmarks had recovered. Brent closed at $106.65, up $1.93, or 1.8%, and its highest settlement since September 15. WTI rose $1.89, or 2%, to $93.74. 13
15 These figures describe different points in the trading day, so the early losses and higher settlements are not contradictory.
Middle East supply risks took center stage
The price reversal came as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and attacks on two tankers over the weekend heightened concern about oil supplies from the region. Reuters reported that the Houthis claimed responsibility for a strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. 1
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For oil traders, the concern was not simply whether more diesel might become available. Attacks on regional infrastructure and tankers raised the possibility of broader disruption to oil flows. The day’s closing report linked Brent’s rise to attacks on Riyadh and oil tankers. 13
Why the announcements did not deliver lasting relief
Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities. That announcement helped weigh on prices earlier, but the reporting available here establishes the market reaction to the claim—not that the ceasefire was implemented. 8
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The diesel announcement also addressed a narrower part of the fuel market than crude oil itself. Saxo described a 500,000-tonne Russian diesel supply agreement as providing “modest relief,” while other reports described additional announced volumes. The available reports do not consistently specify the volumes and timing, so they do not establish exactly how much supply would reach markets or when. 5
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Goldman Sachs raised its forecast, while risks remained
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, citing persistent supply risks. It also estimated the geopolitical risk premium at just over $20 a barrel, according to the reported analysis. 21 The forecast was below Brent’s Monday settlement, but it was a projection—not a guarantee that prices would fall to that level.
The session’s pattern was a contest between potential supply relief and immediate disruption risks. Early optimism about Russian diesel and the announced ceasefire pushed prices lower; renewed concern about Saudi Arabia and tanker security helped drive the rebound. 10
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Oil reversed its early losses on Oct. 12 as Middle East supply concerns outweighed hopes for more Russian diesel and an energy ceasefire.
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Oil reversed its early losses on Oct. 12 as Middle East supply concerns outweighed hopes for more Russian diesel and an energy ceasefire. The market’s focus shifted from possible extra fuel supplies to the risk that attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers could disrupt regional oil flows.