Why Ned Davis Research Turned Bullish on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s September rebound has revived a consequential question: was the 2026 sell-off the start of another deep crypto winter, or evidence that bitcoin’s downturns are becoming less severe? A September 24 Reuters headline reports that Ned Davis Research (NDR) had turned bullish. The case is supported by the size of the drawdown, stronger fund demand and improving price momentum—but the available reporting does not establish a permanent bottom. 94745

Why the change in outlook matters

Earlier in 2026, NDR strategists Pat Tschosik and Philippe Mouls warned that bitcoin could fall to about $31,000 if its decline developed into a full crypto winter. That was a downside scenario, not a prediction that the price would necessarily reach it. Reporting on their analysis also noted a counterargument: greater institutional participation might soften future crashes. 1310

The subsequent recovery makes that counterargument more plausible. CNBC reported bitcoin above $85,000 on September 21, after an October 2025 peak above $126,000. Invesco had already pointed to a move from the low $60,000s to above $80,000 in August, alongside strong exchange-traded product inflows. 1719

What the shallower drawdown shows—and what it does not

Fidelity puts bitcoin’s June 2026 low roughly 53% below its previous all-time high. It notes that earlier bitcoin bear markets fell at least 77%, while also cautioning that investors can debate whether the latest downturn meets the same definition of a bear market. On that basis, the 2026 decline looks unusually shallow so far; calling it the shallowest completed bear market would assume that June was the final low. 47

A smaller loss still matters to a long-term holder. Recovering from a 53% decline requires a gain of about 113%; recovering from a 77% decline requires about 335%. Neither calculation makes a roughly halved investment painless. More importantly, a shallower decline in one cycle cannot show that the next one will be shallow too.

Do ETF flows and technical signals confirm a thaw?

Fund flows offer evidence of renewed demand. September reporting attributed bitcoin’s breakout above $80,000 partly to institutional and ETF buying; one analyst cited nearly $1 billion flowing into spot bitcoin ETFs. But a strong day of inflows does not establish how much capital stayed invested throughout the downturn or prove that every ETF buyer has a long-term horizon. 45

Price action offers a separate, limited signal. Reporting in September said bitcoin had closed a week above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025. Reclaiming that longer-term trend measure is consistent with improving momentum, not a guarantee against another reversal. 35

Several more precise claims sometimes attached to the bullish case—the reported allocations of 15 institutional interviewees, approximately $60 billion of earlier ETF inflows with less than $10 billion withdrawn, and a fall in implied volatility from about 70% to 45% attributed partly to covered-call selling—cannot be verified from the supplied source material. They should not be treated as established explanations for NDR’s September shift.

What a “rising floor” would mean for investors

A rising floor is a market hypothesis, not a minimum price: if a broader base of buyers repeatedly absorbs selling, future cycle lows could be higher and drawdowns less punishing. The 2026 price history and renewed fund demand are consistent with that possibility, but neither identifies who will keep buying in the next sell-off. 4745

The upside is equally unsettled. Milder bear markets do not mathematically require milder bull markets. Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan has argued that crypto winter is over and forecast a particularly strong, long-running bull market—an outlook, not an established outcome. For now, the strongest conclusion is narrower: bitcoin’s recovery and fund flows support NDR’s more optimistic stance, while the durability of any higher floor remains untested. 179