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JPMorgan’s $500 SpaceX Target Rests on a High-Stakes AI-Compute Forecast
JPMorgan raised its SpaceX target 108%, from $240 to $500, as analyst Doug Anmuth made AI computing the central growth bet: the bank forecast $254 billion in 2027 revenue and 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by year end.
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- JPMorgan raised its SpaceX target 108%, from $240 to $500, as analyst Doug Anmuth made AI computing the central growth bet: the bank forecast $254 billion in 2027 revenue and 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by year end.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why did JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth more than double his 12-month SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 on Wednesday, October 21, while mai. Article summary: Anmuth’s increase to $500 from $240, while retaining an Overweight rating, reflected a much more bullish AI-compute outlook: JPMorgan more than doubled its 2027–2028 estimates after SpaceX’s third-quarter results and pro. Topic tags: general, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clic
JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth more than doubled the bank’s SpaceX price target to $500 from $240 after the company’s third-quarter results, keeping an Overweight rating. The central reason was a sharper bet on AI computing: JPMorgan more than doubled its 2027 and 2028 estimates and forecast about $254 billion in 2027 revenue. 3
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The target increase itself was about 108%. The often-cited 238% upside is a different calculation: it compares the $500 target with a reported share price of $147.79. That gap is an analyst’s projected upside, not a promised return. 2
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Why AI compute became the core of the case
Anmuth’s revised outlook treats AI compute as a major future growth engine for SpaceX, beyond its existing space and connectivity businesses. JPMorgan’s reported forecast calls for 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of 2027, alongside roughly $254 billion in revenue that year. 3 A report on the analyst note also identifies SpaceX’s “Super Intelligence” effort as the primary driver going forward.
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Those figures describe a substantial buildout. More capacity can support more computing services, but capacity alone does not establish how much customers will pay or how profitable the business will be. The forecast therefore rests on execution as well as demand: SpaceX would have to expand infrastructure and successfully monetize it.
What the third-quarter results changed
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue growth of 161% year over year, beating estimates, while its AI business grew ninefold, according to CNBC’s earnings coverage. 19 That growth helps explain why JPMorgan revised its estimates after the results, but one strong quarter does not by itself verify the longer-range projections.
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The share response was positive in early trading: SpaceX rose about 8.1% in premarket trading, according to one report. 3 That snapshot is not the same as a confirmed full-day closing move.
The forecast is ambitious—and exposed to execution risk
The reported $500 target is tied to an earnings-based valuation framework: JPMorgan’s case uses about 20 times projected 2028 earnings per share of roughly $24. 18 That multiple depends on the earnings estimate being achieved; the arithmetic does not validate the assumptions behind it.
Scaling compute also involves practical constraints. MarketWatch identified funding, power supply and access to chips as challenges for SpaceX’s expansion. 11 Those factors matter because a forecast built on rapidly growing AI capacity requires infrastructure to come online and sustained demand to turn that capacity into sales and earnings.
The clearest takeaway is that JPMorgan’s higher target is primarily a bet on AI-compute growth, reinforced by SpaceX’s reported quarterly momentum. Its $254 billion 2027 revenue forecast and $500 share target should be read as a bullish scenario built on major future expansion—not as established results or a guarantee of upside. 3
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JPMorgan raised its SpaceX target 108%, from $240 to $500, as analyst Doug Anmuth made AI computing the central growth bet: the bank forecast $254 billion in 2027 revenue and 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by year end.
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tradingview.comJPMorgan Lifts SpaceX Target to $500, Sees $254 Billion Revenue
markets.businessinsider.comSpaceX price target raised to $500 from $240 at JPMorgan
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investing.comJPMorgan raises SpaceX stock price target to $500 on growth outlook By Investing.com