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Why Bitcoin’s $87,700 Break-Even Zone Could Stall the Rally
Glassnode’s analysis puts Bitcoin’s overhead supply near $87,700–$88,000, where recent buyers may be more willing to sell near break even. Glassnode also described support near $80,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, leaving Bitcoin between potential support and resistance zones rather than at a confirmed bre...
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Key takeaways
- Glassnode’s analysis puts Bitcoin’s overhead supply near $87,700–$88,000, where recent buyers may be more willing to sell near break even.
- Glassnode also described support near $80,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, leaving Bitcoin between potential support and resistance zones rather than at a confirmed breakout point.[11]
AI Prompt
openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why did Glassnode identify selling by Bitcoin holders who bought six to 12 months earlier as a barrier to the rally just below their $87,700. Article summary: Glassnode’s interpretation was that Bitcoin faced a supply overhang near $87,700: holders nursing losses could use a recovery toward their average purchase price to exit, limiting the rally.[7][8] That makes the level a . Topic tags: general, documentation, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks,
Bitcoin’s rally faced a potential supply barrier near $87,700–$88,000: the estimated average cost basis of coins bought six to 12 months earlier. When a price recovery brings underwater investors close to break-even, some may choose to sell, adding offers that buyers must absorb. Glassnode’s analysis makes that zone a possible resistance area—not a fixed ceiling.5
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Why break-even can become resistance
A cost basis is an estimate of what a group of coins paid on average, not the exact purchase price of every person in that group. Still, it can help explain investor behavior: holders who have been sitting on losses may be more inclined to exit when the market returns near their estimated entry point.7
If enough holders sell into a rally, their offers can outweigh new demand and price may struggle to advance. That is the potential resistance mechanism behind the $87,700–$88,000 zone. Glassnode’s October analysis placed the six-to-12-month cohort’s cost basis at about $88,000 and said this level, alongside other overhead supply, had turned price back earlier in the year.11
There is an important distinction between the cohort that sets the break-even reference and the cohort Glassnode said was selling. In an October 13 post, the firm said one-to-two-year holders sold heavily as Bitcoin rallied toward $88,000, where the six-to-12-month group would break even; it added that the older cohort’s selling had since slowed considerably.16
What could turn the zone into support?
Resistance is not permanent. If buyers keep purchasing through sell orders and Bitcoin sustains a move above the zone, the market would show that available supply had been absorbed. Glassnode said that a daily close above the area alongside ETF inflows would indicate buyers were absorbing supply.28
A former resistance level can then become a support reference if buyers step in when price revisits it. But neither a close above the level nor a retest guarantees that support will hold; they are evidence to assess alongside demand and price behavior, not proof of a future direction.
The broader range: overhead supply and lower support
Glassnode’s October 14 report described Bitcoin as caught between overhead cost-basis supply and support lower down. It placed the six-to-12-month cohort’s basis near $88,000, the one-to-two-year cohort near $100,000, and the True Market Mean—its estimate of the average cost basis of active investors—near $78,000. The report also said bids had refilled after Bitcoin swept to about $80,000.11
That makes the $80,000 area a support reference, not a guaranteed floor. Order-book bids can change, and an estimated cohort cost basis does not require holders to buy or sell. If Bitcoin holds near support, the market may remain rangebound; a decisive move through overhead supply or a loss of support would change that picture. Those are conditional scenarios, not price predictions.
How to read the cost-basis signal
Glassnode defines its True Market Mean as a representative cost-basis model for active investors, while its cohort estimates group coins by when they were acquired.1
11 Such averages can clarify where a group may be near break-even, but they do not reveal the intentions of every holder. Treat the $87,700–$88,000 level as a potential area of selling interest—and look for evidence of sustained demand before calling a breakout.
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What is the short answer to "Why Bitcoin’s $87,700 Break-Even Zone Could Stall the Rally"?
Glassnode’s analysis puts Bitcoin’s overhead supply near $87,700–$88,000, where recent buyers may be more willing to sell near break even.
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Glassnode’s analysis puts Bitcoin’s overhead supply near $87,700–$88,000, where recent buyers may be more willing to sell near break even. Glassnode also described support near $80,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, leaving Bitcoin between potential support and resistance zones rather than at a confirmed breakout point.[11]