Bitcoin’s Dealer Gamma Shifted From Negative in June to Positive in Late September

Bitcoin’s available options-market readings shifted from negative gamma in late June to positive modeled gamma by late September. But the evidence is not a continuous month-by-month record: gamma estimates depend on the options and expiries included, and a change in the contract being measured can change the reported regime. 1136

What positive and negative gamma imply

Gamma exposure estimates how options positioning may affect dealer hedging as Bitcoin’s price moves. In a positive-gamma regime, hedging is generally described as countering price moves—buying dips and selling rallies—which can dampen volatility. In a negative-gamma regime, hedging may follow the move and amplify it. These are model-based descriptions of potential flows, not guarantees about what Bitcoin’s price will do. 8

How the readings changed

• June 24: Bitfinex reported Bitcoin trading below its estimated gamma flip, around $68,000–$70,000, with aggregate market-maker exposure negative. That pointed to a potentially move-amplifying setup at the time. 11
• September 10: An analysis of Deribit expiry data recorded a gamma-regime flip. The same analysis cautioned that the reading for the “nearest expiry” can change when the contract rolls: across its study period, the regime label changed on 68.8% of daily rolls for the nearest-expiry slot, versus 9.4% when following the same contract. 3
• Ahead of September 25: Market coverage described Bitcoin as being in a positive-gamma zone, where dealer hedging could help dampen moves. 4
• September 26 snapshot: A Deribit-based dashboard reported positive modeled net gamma of 88.78K. This is a dated snapshot, not a live reading or a guarantee that conditions persisted afterward. 6

What the shift does—and doesn’t—tell us

Taken together, these sources support a broad change from a negative-gamma reading in late June to positive readings in late September. They do not establish that gamma stayed positive throughout July and August, or that every options-market model showed the same regime at every point. 11346

The expiry caveat matters: a headline flip in the nearest-expiry reading may reflect a new contract entering that slot, rather than a comparable change in positioning within the same contract. Gamma estimates also depend on the model and options included. Treat the readings as time-stamped context for possible hedging behavior—not as a single, definitive measure of the entire Bitcoin market. 38