Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens: Oil Spikes, Asian Refiners Hunt US Crude, and Europe Faces Winter Gas Crisis

U.S. Threatens Indefinite Naval Blockade of Iran

On Thursday, August 13, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters the U.S. military has enough assets to maintain a naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely," with ships that can be rotated in and out of the region . Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also pledged "economic isolation like the world has never seen before" alongside the continued blockade . Both Washington and Tehran continued to claim control of the Strait, with Iran's Basij commander insisting the waterway remains "under Iran's control and management" . The U.S. blockade, reimposed on July 14, bans ships from going to or from any Iranian port and has strangled Iran's cashflow .

Asian Refiners Scramble for U.S. Crude

With Middle Eastern supply choked off, Asian buyers aggressively pivoted to American barrels. At least four Asia-based refiners bought U.S. crude this week for delivery later in 2026, traders reported . North Asian refiners stepped up spot buying of U.S. crude as an alternative to Middle Eastern grades stuck behind the Hormuz closure . This marked an acceleration of a trend that began in July, when Asian refiners first resumed U.S. crude negotiations as the Iran war intensified . Earlier in July, two South Korean refiners purchased at least 5 million barrels of WTI crude at premiums of about $11–$12 a barrel to the Dubai benchmark, while Thailand's PTT bought about 1 million barrels and Japan's Eneos acquired 2 million barrels .

European Natural Gas: TTF Surges on Curtailed LNG and Record-Low Storage

European gas markets faced acute pressure from two directions — lost Qatari LNG flows and dangerously low storage:

• TTF benchmark surged 8.3% on Monday, August 10, to €60.20/MWh, then jumped another 9% on August 11 as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal faded
• By Thursday, August 13, TTF traded around €60.35/MWh, still up more than 8% for the week
• EU gas storage stood at just 57% full as of August 6 — a historic low for that point in the year and well below the 75–80% typical fill level, raising acute winter supply risks
• The crisis has removed roughly 20% of global LNG export capacity (Qatar and UAE Gulf LNG capacity was shut in March), equivalent to 9 billion cubic meters per month
• Uniper's CEO said gas prices would likely remain around €50–60/MWh as long as the Strait stays closed, and warned that storage facilities may miss the 70% fill target for November

Broader Supply Concerns: Asian Refiners Extend Procurement Horizons

Asian refiners had already secured supplies through August by June 2026, but the renewed closure of the Strait forced them to extend procurement horizons further . By the week of August 14, traders confirmed that Asian processors were seeking cargoes further out than usual, with U.S. crude seen as the primary alternative to blocked Middle Eastern supply . The war also threatened Asian refiners' plans to ramp up output, risking tighter global fuel stocks . The U.S. energy system has helped cushion the shock loss of oil and LNG supply from the Middle East since the Strait closed .

Key Takeaway

The week saw the Strait of Hormuz crisis enter a more entrenched phase. The U.S. committed to an indefinite blockade, oil benchmarks oscillated between $82 and $90, Asian refiners locked in U.S. crude for late-2026 delivery, and European gas markets faced a structurally worsened supply outlook with storage at record lows and TTF above €60/MWh.