ITC Data Shows Strait of Hormuz Disruption Caused 95% LNG Collapse and a $1.2 Trillion Shock to Global Trade

In absolute volume terms, the largest losses were in crude petroleum (‑28 million tonnes), refined petroleum oils (‑7.3 million tonnes), and LNG (‑5.5 million tonnes) . The ITC noted that "sizeable falls in fertilizers, chemicals, plastics and aluminium show that the disruption affected a broader range of industries and supply chains" — not just energy .

Asia's Import Shock: Japan Hit Hardest

The impact on importing nations was immediate and severe, with Japan emerging as the most exposed major economy. Japan historically sourced 91% of its crude petroleum imports from Hormuz-dependent economies, and in April 2026 its total crude imports fell by 64% . This led to a 1.01 trillion yen ($6.2 billion) trade deficit in the first half of 2026 . Japan was forced to turn to alternative suppliers, including Canadian crude, as the supply crunch persisted .

South Korea and Malaysia — also highly dependent on the Strait — recorded similarly severe import declines, though specific percentages for those countries were not published in the ITC summary . Japan's trade chief declared the Hormuz route effectively "off-limits" while the conflict continued .

Global Trade Growth Forecast Halved

The broader macroeconomic consequences were profound. The ITC projected that global merchandise trade growth would decelerate from about 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026 — a reduction of more than half . This projection was driven by the energy shock, higher transport and insurance costs, and cascading supply chain disruptions.

This forecast was consistent with analyses from other international bodies. UNCTAD, which shares a mandate with the ITC and WTO, warned that global trade was losing momentum, with energy shocks pushing up prices and increasing the cost of living . The UN agency noted that vulnerable economies, home to nearly 1 billion people, were feeling the squeeze as oil price spikes raised import costs and fueled inflation .

Beyond Energy: A Systemic Supply Chain Shock

The ITC analysis underscored that the Strait of Hormuz disruption was not just an energy crisis. The Strait normally carries about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, a large share of LNG flows, and roughly one-third of globally traded urea . The disruption exposed the fragility of relying on a single maritime chokepoint for such a wide range of essential industrial and agricultural inputs.

Research from the Kiel Institute estimated that the closure blocked roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and one-quarter of its LNG, triggering severe welfare losses in energy-dependent developing countries worldwide . A separate analysis by Table Media found that roughly USD 1.2 trillion in annual trade flows from five Gulf countries could be affected by a prolonged closure .

The ITC's findings served as a data-driven confirmation of what shipping data had already been signaling: that the Strait of Hormuz crisis was the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1973 oil embargo , with ripple effects extending far beyond energy into fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, and metals — the fundamental building blocks of modern industrial economies.