How TotalEnergies Turned U.S. Navy Ship Movements Into a Billion-Dollar Oil Profit

Cornering the Dubai benchmark

The trading desk's response was swift and aggressive. In March, TotalEnergies' trading unit bought every available May-loading cargo of crude from the United Arab Emirates and Oman—approximately 70 shipments, more than double what the company had purchased in February . To put that in perspective, only 347 total shipments of that crude grade traded globally across the entire period .

The strategic logic was straightforward: with the Strait of Hormuz closed to tanker traffic, crude that did not need to pass through the chokepoint—specifically UAE and Omani cargoes loading from ports outside the Gulf—would become extraordinarily valuable. TotalEnergies used a combination of physical purchases and "paper" oil market instruments including futures, options, and swaps to hedge its positions and amplify returns on rising prices .

When the war erupted and Hormuz became impassable, the gamble paid off spectacularly. TotalEnergies sold those cargoes at massive premiums, earning well over $1 billion in profit from the trade alone .

A quarter defined by trading gains

TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $5.4 billion for the first quarter of 2026, a 29% surge year-on-year that comfortably beat the average analyst estimate of $4.98 billion . The company attributed the performance to "very strong oil trading results" and higher oil prices triggered by the Iran war .

Remarkably, these profits came despite the conflict shutting down 15% of TotalEnergies' own global production—roughly 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day . The trading windfall more than compensated for those upstream losses. In response, TotalEnergies raised its interim dividend by 6% and doubled its share buyback program .

The company's European refining margin hit $11.40 per barrel, a 192% increase from the $3.90 margin a year earlier, as the war drove fuel prices higher .

Parliament demands answers

The outsized profits quickly drew political fire. Éric Coquerel of the left-wing La France Insoumise, president of the National Assembly's finance committee, summoned Pouyanné to appear before parliament on June 17, 2026, to answer questions about "war superprofits" and the company's tax obligations .

Coquerel highlighted a detail that inflamed public anger: TotalEnergies paid zero euros in corporate income tax in France in 2025 . The revelation gave fresh ammunition to left-wing parties who had long argued that multinational energy companies were undertaxed relative to the profits they extracted during crises.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu defended the company in late April, resisting calls for a windfall tax . But opposition parties pressed ahead. The Greens submitted a bill for an "exceptional solidarity contribution" on oil and gas profits, while the Socialists announced a similar proposal . Green party leader Marine Tondelier called Pouyanné "a crisis profiteer" engaged in "odious blackmail" . Socialist leader Pierre Jouvet labeled Pouyanné's threats "irresponsible" and "unpatriotic" .

The fuel cap as leverage

Pouyanné responded with his own pressure tactic. In early May, he warned in an interview with the regional press that if France imposed a supertax on refinery profits, TotalEnergies would end its price cap at French service stations—a popular measure that keeps petrol below €1.99 per liter .

"In the event of a surtax on our refineries, which are often loss-making, we will not be able to maintain the cap at our stations in France," Pouyanné stated . He added that it was "very probable" the company would fall under the surtax on large multinationals introduced in 2025 for companies with revenues above €1.5 billion .

The threat placed the French government in a difficult position. The fuel price cap, first tested during the 2023 energy crisis and reintroduced on March 12, 2026, had become a visible consumer protection measure . By tying its continuation to the tax debate, Pouyanné effectively dared lawmakers to impose new levies at the cost of higher pump prices for French drivers.

Minister for SMEs Serge Papin said he was "not in favor" of taxing TotalEnergies' war profits, arguing that "he's doing his job as a fuel distributor," a position notably firmer than Economy Minister Roland Lescure's more cautious statements .

A debate that isn't going away

Pouyanné's Le Figaro interview, in which he declared that "our profits don't fall from the sky," only intensified the controversy ahead of his June 17 hearing . The parliamentary session is expected to focus not just on the trading strategy but on the broader question of whether France's tax code adequately captures windfall profits from geopolitical disruptions.

The trade itself raises uncomfortable questions about the asymmetry of information in commodity markets. TotalEnergies emphasized that it was simply acting to "secure supplies for itself and its customers" and noted that around 15% of its global hydrocarbon production was directly at risk .

But the scale of the profit—generated by traders who publicly monitored warship movements rather than classified intelligence—has left critics questioning whether existing rules adequately address profits derived from anticipating and capitalizing on armed conflict. As Pouyanné prepares to face parliament, the outcome will likely shape not just TotalEnergies' tax bill but the broader European debate on windfall taxation in an era of geopolitical volatility.