Latvia's 'Werewolf' Operation: Inside the First Migrant Tunnel and the Hybrid War Ahead of October Elections

Operation Werewolf (Vilkatis)

On August 11, 2026 — the day after the tunnel discovery — Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs announced the launch of Operation Vilkatis (Werewolf), a coordinated security operation to combat illegal migration on Latvia's eastern border . The operation is an information-sharing mechanism between state institutions, coordinated by the Crisis Management Council . It involves increased personnel and technical assets along the border, including military and border guard forces . The operation is set to run at least through the end of August 2026 . The decision followed a joint assessment by the Defence and Interior Ministries .

The Migrant Surge Since July 2025

Migration pressure on Latvia has intensified dramatically since mid-2025. In the full year 2025, Latvian authorities prevented 12,046 illegal border crossing attempts . By mid-July 2026, approximately 8,000 crossing attempts had already been recorded in just the first half of the year . By July 21, 2026, the figure reached 8,413 attempts — more than double the number recorded in 2024 . Latvia experienced 111 consecutive days of attempted crossings from Belarus — not a single day without an attempt from late March through mid-July 2026 . In mid-July alone, a single day saw 111 attempted crossings . By early August 2026, Latvian authorities reported having stopped nearly 9,000 migrants from crossing . The pressure shifted to Latvia after Lithuania and Poland hardened their own borders, making Latvia the newest primary target of Belarus's migration pressure campaign .

Government Framing: Hybrid Warfare and the October 2026 Elections

Latvia's parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 3, 2026, and the government has consistently framed the migration crisis as part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign orchestrated by Russia and Belarus . Latvian authorities have explicitly called the migrant surge a hybrid attack organized by Minsk, not a spontaneous migration flow . PM Kulbergs stated in a July 2026 Euronews interview that the top level of the Russian mob and the leadership of both Russia and Belarus are behind the escalation, and that Putin is stepping up hybrid war on Latvia because he's losing in Ukraine . Kulbergs has warned that migrants are being deployed to probe border weaknesses, which could intensify tensions ahead of the October vote . The Prime Minister has asked NATO for more troops and air defence, flagged the risk of election meddling, and hardened security at critical energy and water infrastructure after intelligence flagged Russian threats . EU officials have explicitly noted the timing — that the migrant pressure campaign is being leveraged ahead of Latvia's October elections to exert political strain and destabilize the country .

In short, Riga presents the tunnel discovery, the surge in crossings, and the launch of Operation Werewolf as clear evidence of a coordinated Russia-Belarus hybrid strategy designed to test border defences, stoke internal tensions, and interfere with the country's democratic process ahead of the October 3 parliamentary elections.