Arab League warns of 'moment of explosion' as Gaza ceasefire stalls ahead of Trump-Netanyahu meeting

Status of the Gaza ceasefire's second phase

The second phase of the ceasefire, based on Trump's 20-Point Plan, has made very little meaningful progress. Key developments include:

• Phase two declaration: The US declared phase two in January 2026, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction .
• Mediation talks continue in Cairo: Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish intelligence chiefs met on July 27 to coordinate phase-two implementation . A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on July 28 for further talks with Egyptian mediators .
• Hamas reports progress: The group has described "positive progress" and an emerging consensus on a unified national position regarding the phase-two roadmap .
• However, a J Street assessment covering April–July 2026 concluded that "little progress has occurred" on actual implementation of phase two . Both sides continue to accuse each other of breaching the terms, which include full Israeli troop withdrawal and Hamas disarmament .

Ceasefire violations

Violations have been persistent and documented by multiple sources:

• At least 2,400 Israeli violations were recorded by the Gaza government media office in the first six months (October 2025–April 2026), including 1,109 airstrikes and shelling attacks and 921 shootings targeting civilians .
• Ongoing casualties: On July 6, Israeli air attacks killed at least 6 Palestinians and wounded more than 20 in Gaza . In late January, a single day of strikes killed 23 Palestinians .
• Territorial control: Nine months into the ceasefire, Israel now controls nearly 70% of Gaza .
• UN assessment: A UN assessment described the ceasefire as "failing," noting that while hostage releases occurred and hostilities de-escalated, attacks have continued and the broader framework has not held . Human Rights Watch documented that Israel continues to curb aid and kill civilians during the ceasefire .
• Both sides trade blame: Israel also reports Palestinian violations, including rocket and small-arms fire .

Regional diplomatic pressures

• Trump-Netanyahu meeting (July 28-29, 2026): This is their first meeting since the US-Israel-Iran war. The White House agenda includes the Iran conflict, the trilateral US-Israel-Lebanon agreement, and expanding the Abraham Accords . Notably, no public photo opportunity is currently scheduled . Some Trump allies fear the meeting could pull the US deeper into war with Iran .
• Iran dimension: Trump privately warned Netanyahu against renewing hostilities with Iran, according to an Axios interview reported by Reuters .
• Cairo mediation track: Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey are actively mediating phase-two talks, with Israeli and Egyptian military officials also holding parallel security talks in Cairo .
• Humanitarian crisis: The ceasefire's failure has left Gaza in dire condition — CNN reported bodies lying unclaimed and rats running rampant as deal terms remain unimplemented . The Board of Peace (BoP), chaired by Trump, submitted its first biannual report to the UN Security Council in May 2026 .