Sechin at SPIEF 2026: U.S. Energy Wins From Hormuz Blockade, India to Drive Half of Global Oil Demand Growth

Sechin characterized the situation as “an attempt to reshape global energy market regulations to benefit the United States,” asserting that U.S. oil producers have gained “noncompetitive advantages” and are now selling supplies at inflated prices . He noted that U.S. hydrocarbon exports are “breaking all records,” a dynamic he argues was an unintended but lucrative consequence of the crisis that has “backfired on the entire world” . If the strait were to reopen soon, Sechin projected Brent would fall to around $95 a barrel, but the prolonged tension has created a temporary windfall for non-affected suppliers .

A Looming Food Crisis and India’s Vulnerability

The disruption of energy supplies through the Hormuz chokepoint has cascading effects on global food security. Sechin revealed that fertilizer prices had already surged by nearly 60% in the first four months of 2026, driven by higher natural gas input costs and supply chain disruptions . This spike in agricultural input costs threatens to generate a systemic food price shock, with Sechin specifically identifying India, along with countries in Africa and Southeast Asia, as among the most vulnerable economies .

The logic is straightforward: higher fertilizer costs reduce crop yields and raise the price of staple foods, hitting import-dependent developing nations hardest. This warning aligns with broader concerns from international bodies, including the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, which has previously described the Strait of Hormuz closure not as a temporary disruption but as the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock . Sechin’s focus on food inflation highlights the secondary effects of an energy crisis that extend far beyond the price of oil.

India’s Unstoppable Energy Demand

In the same speech, Sechin pivoted from the immediate crisis to the long-term structure of global demand, placing India squarely at the center of the next decade’s oil market. He projected that India will account for about half—approximately 50%—of the total global increase in oil demand over the next ten years, citing International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts .

“India's economy is one of the key drivers of global energy consumption growth,” Sechin said, detailing a consumption trajectory that sees India’s oil use rising 44% to nearly 8 million barrels per day by 2035 . Electricity demand is expected to surge even faster, growing 80% to almost 3,000 terawatt-hours by the same year, a level that approaches the current total consumption of the European Union . Sechin noted that India will also account for 15% of the global increase in electricity demand over the same period .

This projection makes India an indispensable partner for major oil exporters. For Russia, which according to OPEC data shipped roughly two million barrels per day to India in March 2026—the highest level since June 2025 and nearly three times Saudi Arabia’s volume—this demand trajectory represents a structural shift in energy trade .

Russia’s Strategic Pitch as a Reliable Partner

Amid the chaos in the Middle East, Sechin delivered a clear message about Russia’s role as an alternative energy anchor. “Russia cannot be excluded from global supply chains,” he stated, arguing that the economic partnership Moscow has built with China and India “guarantees stable supplies to both of these countries,” irrespective of volatility in other oil markets .

Russia is currently the largest single supplier of crude oil to both China and India, a position Sechin used to present Moscow not just as a commodity exporter, but as a stabilizing force in a fragmented global market . His framing is transparent: with Hormuz unreliable and U.S. producers benefiting from price spikes, Russia is offering long-term supply guarantees to Asia’s two largest emerging economies, aiming to lock in market share while the global order rearranges itself.

The Underlying Strategic Argument

Sechin’s full presentation, titled “The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning: What’s left at the Bottom of Pandora's Box,” tied the energy crisis into a broader thesis of global resource scarcity that extends to electricity, metals, water, and food . His message at SPIEF was designed to position the Hormuz blockade as a U.S.-enabled disruption that has inflated costs for the rest of the world while enriching American producers. Simultaneously, he projected India’s insatiable demand and Russia’s reliable supply as the twin pillars of the next decade’s energy architecture.