Why Gulf Travel Warnings Are Lifting But European Airlines Still Aren't Flying

The Islamabad Memorandum: what it says

The Islamabad Memorandum (full official name: Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran) is a 14-point "framework agreement" aimed at ending the 2026 Iran war . It was primarily brokered by Pakistan, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt also facilitating negotiations .

Key provisions include:

• A ceasefire and de-escalation of hostilities .
• Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and oil transit, toll-free for 60 days .
• An end to the US naval blockade of Iran .
• A framework for the withdrawal of forces and future negotiations .
• Electronic signatures confirming the deal at the governmental level, announced by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 18 June .

The memorandum should not be confused with any separate Pakistan-Afghanistan security agreement; this is specifically a US-Iran instrument .

Why European airlines still cannot resume Gulf routing

Despite the diplomatic progress, European airlines remain unable to resume normal Gulf routing because aviation safety regulation operates on a separate track from political agreements .

EASA prohibitions remain in force. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency currently prohibits operators from flying within the airspace of Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon at all flight levels . A March 2026 aviation risk report confirmed that key flight information regions—including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Syria—remain closed to civil aviation . EASA's Conflict Zone Information Bulletin (CZIB) for the Middle East and Persian Gulf was valid until at least 24 June 2026 and advises operators to "exercise caution" when flying through Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Jordan, and other regional airspace .

Residual military risk remains relevant. Airlines had recently rushed to cancel flights and redirect aircraft after multiple Middle Eastern countries temporarily closed their airspace in response to Iran's attack on a US military base in Qatar . The same disruption forced airlines to cancel flights and redirect aircraft, showing that carriers still had to manage operational, safety, and network risks even as diplomacy moved forward .

Airline-specific suspensions persist. Air France extended its suspension of flights to Beirut and Dubai until at least 24 June 2026 . The same source reported that European airlines were unlikely to restart flights until after the summer, even after the MoU was signed .

Hubs remain fragile. Qatar was among the countries whose airspace was temporarily closed during the crisis , and aviation risk reporting continued to flag major Gulf and surrounding flight information regions as closed to civil aviation .

In short, travel advisories have eased, but operational airspace restrictions and EASA safety directives still depend on aviation safety assessments and airspace reopening, not only on the political agreement . The Islamabad Memorandum is a necessary first step, but until EASA reviews its CZIB and national airspace authorities lift NOTAMs, European carriers will remain on the ground or on prolonged detours.