This marks a pivotal shift from seeing ETH as an asset with massive future upside to viewing its current market capitalization as a fair and final reflection of its achievements. Hoffman sees no compelling logic for the market to significantly reprice the token in either direction .
At the heart of Hoffman's reasoning is a view of Ethereum's architecture as inherently generous. He describes the base layer as the world's most successful open-source nonprofit, providing supremely secure block space, global asset tokenization, and massive DeFi infrastructure to Layer 2s (L2s) and applications at near-cost, without markups .
This design philosophy means the network succeeds by giving value away rather than extracting it. Hoffman notes that L2s capture roughly 97% of fee profit, while applications take the remainder. The Layer 1 base layer is left running essentially at cost . As execution has shifted off-chain to L2s, the direct link between booming network activity and the L1 asset price has weakened. Simply put, the network can thrive financially while the ETH token sees minimal economic benefit.
Hoffman also suggests that the window of opportunity for ETH to become true global money has shut. Achieving that vision would have required a perfect alignment of conditions: a startup-like Ethereum Foundation, unwavering alignment of L2s, flawless execution of the technical roadmap, and sustained mainstream crypto adoption .
The rise of competitive ecosystems like Solana, Ethereum's own slower pace of adaptability, and the fleeting nature of the 2020–2021 mainstream moment all conspired to close that door . He encapsulates this by saying Ethereum would need to "win a war that its architecture refuses to fight" for ETH to become global money, and that he no longer sees that happening
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This leads to the most crucial distinction in Hoffman's argument—one between the Ethereum network and the ETH token.
This is not a declaration of an Ethereum apocalypse but a maturation of the investment thesis. Hoffman's sale was not an act of bearishness on the technology but a strategic reallocation of capital toward opportunities where he sees more direct value capture—a place ETH, by its own generous design, no longer occupies .
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