Why CryptoQuant’s CEO Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Could Last Until 2027

This is not a price target. Ju's framework is a cycle-duration model, not a prediction that Bitcoin will fall to a specific number. It describes how long the pain of declining aggregate profitability might last based on past patterns.

The Missing Reversal Signal

The most important caveat in Ju's analysis is what hasn't happened yet. He has repeatedly stated that for a genuine bullish trend reversal to take hold, a specific on-chain condition must appear: unrealized profits must begin rising while realized profits are simultaneously falling .

This divergence would signal that investors are holding onto their coins in anticipation of higher prices, rather than cashing out at every opportunity. Without it, Ju maintains, the bearish PnL trend is likely to persist . As of his latest comments, "we have not seen this situation occur" .

Beyond the Index: Whale Selling and Liquidity Exhaustion

Ju's PnL framework doesn't exist in a vacuum. Throughout 2025 and early 2026, he has pointed to a structural liquidity problem weighing on Bitcoin. Early whales — large holders who accumulated Bitcoin at cost bases near $16,000 — have been selling hundreds of millions of dollars daily, overwhelming demand from ETFs and institutional buyers like MicroStrategy .

Meanwhile, the fresh capital inflows that had previously buoyed the market have stalled. Ju has pointed to a "flatlined" Realized Cap as evidence that new money is no longer entering the market at a meaningful pace . In February 2026, he summed up the dynamic bluntly: "Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in" .

The combination of persistent profit-taking and exhausted inflows creates a difficult environment for price recovery, even if the sell-off doesn't reach the extreme capitulation levels of previous cycles.

Price Context: How Deep Is the Drawdown?

When Ju issued his early-2027 timeline in late May 2026, Bitcoin had slipped into the roughly $73,000 range — a decline of about 42% from its October 2025 all-time high above $125,700 . The drawdown has been severe enough to push short-term holder cost bases deep underwater and generate a substantial overhang of unrealized losses .

Some technical analysts have pointed to the $74,000 area as a critical level that could support a recovery if reclaimed . Ju does not dismiss such levels outright, but his PnL framework suggests that any bounce within the next year may occur within a broader bear-market structure rather than a genuine trend reversal.

What Could Change the Outlook

Ju's forecast is probabilistic, not deterministic. The 18-month clock from October 2025 is a historical pattern, not a law of nature. Two variables could meaningfully alter the timeline:

Fresh capital inflows. Ju has repeatedly emphasized that the bearish structure is fundamentally a liquidity problem. A significant return of buying pressure — particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs — could challenge the PnL decline pattern .

The reversal signal itself. If unrealized profits begin climbing while realized profits fall, Ju's own framework would suggest the bearish trend is ending earlier than his projection. Until that signal appears, however, he has been consistent in warning that the market remains in a profit-taking phase .

Ju himself has encouraged traders to distinguish raw on-chain data from analyst forecasts, advising a "DYOR" process that cross-verifies signals across multiple data providers . In that spirit, his 2027 timeline is best understood as a data-driven scenario with clear on-chain conditions that could either confirm or invalidate it in the months ahead.