Why Jiang Zhuoer Turned Bullish on Crypto—and Why He Favors Ethereum Over Bitcoin

Jiang Zhuoer’s shift from bearish to bullish was driven less by a new certainty than by a market move that invalidated his earlier downside case. Bitcoin rebounded toward $79,500, short positions were forced to close, and institutional flows returned after a volatile stretch. He subsequently said he was 90% confident that the crypto bear market had ended—but that percentage is a personal trading assessment, not an independently verified probability or market consensus.

The rebound that changed his view

Jiang had previously projected a much deeper Bitcoin decline, with one cycle model placing the potential bottom near $44,016 around October 31. That forecast was based on drawdowns observed across earlier Bitcoin bull-and-bear cycles.

The market instead moved sharply higher. One report attributed part of the acceleration to approximately $1.44 billion in forced short closures, compared with about $168 million in liquidated longs. Such an imbalance can turn a rally into a self-reinforcing short squeeze as bearish traders buy back positions.

ETF activity added support to the bullish narrative, but the data was inconsistent rather than uniformly positive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $853.5 million during the first week of August, their strongest weekly result since April, while a later report put August net inflows at roughly $951 million after an August 19 inflow. However, the funds also recorded $389.7 million in net outflows during the week of August 10, according to Bloomberg.

That combination helps explain the reversal: the rebound was broad and powerful enough to challenge the bearish thesis, but ETF flows alone do not establish that a durable market bottom is in place.

Jiang’s latest ETH trade and remaining plan

In reports dated August 21–22, Jiang said he had bought back ETH near $2,100 after previously selling in the $1,738–$1,931 range. As ETH climbed to about $2,525, he sold half of his spot position while attempting to identify a local top, setting a stop-loss near $2,550.

He reportedly kept 20%–30% of his planned capital undeployed. His stated plan was to put that capital into ETH if Bitcoin retreated into roughly the $67,000–$72,000 range. If that pullback did not occur, he intended to buy at prevailing prices no later than the end of October.

The plan is tactical, not a promise to buy at one fixed price. It reflects Jiang’s attempt to remain exposed to a potential continuation while keeping capital available for a pullback.

Why he expects ETH to outperform Bitcoin

Jiang’s relative-performance thesis is that ETH/BTC could turn higher, meaning Ethereum would outperform Bitcoin during this cycle. Reporting on his revised outlook also points to Ethereum’s fundamentals, developer activity and network upgrades as reasons he believes ETH could lead the next rally.

The broader case presented in the supplied reporting is that Ethereum could benefit from growth in stablecoin use, tokenization and real-world-asset applications. Industry research cited in the record describes selective rotation into ETH and reports that spot ether ETFs had ended a lengthy period of outflows, although those signals do not prove sustained outperformance.

That distinction matters. A stronger use case or improving capital flows may support Jiang’s thesis, but neither demonstrates that ETH will beat BTC. The ETH/BTC view remains an investment judgment exposed to volatility, liquidity changes and shifting market risk.

The April-to-August sequence shows the market’s whipsaw

Jiang’s public trading decisions changed repeatedly as prices and macro risks shifted:

• April: He reported shorting ETH near $2,242 for a short- to medium-term trade and maintained that the bear-market cycle had not ended.
• June: He repurchased ETH at an average price near $1,645, then sold half around $1,629 amid concerns about geopolitical escalation.
• July 15: He sold the remaining ETH near $1,931, completing the spot liquidation at an average exit price of about $1,834.50. He estimated that the rebound could stall near $2,000.
• July 28: He said he was no longer shorting ETH and instead shifted the bearish position toward BTC, using WBETH or WBTC as collateral according to differing reports, because he viewed the two assets as having different technical paths and possible bottoming dates.
• August 21–22: After the subsequent rally, he bought ETH near $2,100, sold half near $2,525, and reversed to a broadly bullish market view.

The sequence is a useful illustration of crypto-market whipsaw conditions. A trader can move from short ETH, to spot ETH exposure, to a BTC short, and back to an ETH-focused bullish plan within months as price action overwhelms an earlier model.

What “90% confident” does—and does not—mean

Jiang’s statement should be read as a disclosed opinion about his own positioning. The available reports do not provide an audited forecasting model, a calibrated probability methodology, independently verified position sizes or a complete performance record. Some trade details are based on his own posts and secondary reports rather than exchange-confirmed execution data.

His reversal may prove timely, but it does not confirm that the bear market has ended. The strongest evidence for his new view is the market’s failed follow-through on the earlier downside forecast, the scale of short liquidations and periods of renewed ETF demand. The strongest reason for caution is that those signals have been volatile, while his own trading history shows how quickly conviction and positioning changed.

For readers assessing the call, the practical takeaway is simple: Jiang is now positioned for further upside, with a particular preference for ETH, but the “90%” figure is not a verified market probability. It is a high-conviction view formed during a fast-moving rebound.