The accusations are flying. The UAE directly blames Iran for the latest missile attacks . Iran says the strait will remain closed to unauthorized vessels, barring transit by US and Israeli ships, and insists Washington must accept its conditions before shipping can resume . The US, for its part, says it is in "total control" of the waterway — a claim Iran angrily denies .
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz "appeared to grind to a near standstill" on Friday, Aug 14, after the latest attacks and new US threats . Earlier in July, just 25 ships passed through the strait in a single day (down from 49 the previous day), according to maritime data firm Kpler — a 50% drop . The waterway normally carries about a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply .
On Aug 8, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a sweeping set of conditions for reopening the strait. Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr said the US must:
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, stated on Aug 9 that no direct negotiations are ongoing between Tehran and Washington, and that intermediaries are still trying to find a way to resume talks . Both sides are laying out increasingly expansive demands rather than converging . The earlier June memorandum of understanding that paused hostilities has effectively collapsed .
On Aug 13, the US said it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely" and vowed to ratchet up economic pressure as the ceasefire deadline approaches . On Aug 14, the US warned it would step up economic pressure further after the two latest ship attacks . Previous rounds of coercion included: revoking Iran's oil sales license (July 7) ; launching hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for ship attacks ; and Trump demanding compensation from Iran for deaths linked to the conflict .
Brent crude settled at $88.52/barrel on Aug 14, up $1.45 (1.67%) on the day, with WTI at $85.38/barrel . The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the Hormuz disruption . US gasoline prices are rising as reduced crude shipments through Hormuz pressure domestic refineries; Trump has warned drivers to brace for higher costs . Oil briefly traded above $90/barrel in mid-July when traffic nearly halted .
Diplomatic sources describe the talks as not developing into an agreement or even a memorandum of understanding at this stage, with Iran's conflicting demands leaving a deal out of reach . Analysts note that Iran has effectively frontloaded all its key demands (withdrawal of US threat, financial relief, and Iranian management of the strait) while deferring discussion of its nuclear program — a non-starter for the Trump administration . The risk of a prolonged stalemate is high. With no direct US-Iran talks underway, the Oman-mediated channel appears insufficient to close the gap, and both sides are hardening their positions .
The accusations are flying. The UAE directly blames Iran for the latest missile attacks . Iran says the strait will remain closed to unauthorized vessels, barring transit by US and Israeli ships, and insists Washington must accept its conditions before shipping can resume . The US, for its part, says it is in "total control" of the waterway — a claim Iran angrily denies .
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz "appeared to grind to a near standstill" on Friday, Aug 14, after the latest attacks and new US threats . Earlier in July, just 25 ships passed through the strait in a single day (down from 49 the previous day), according to maritime data firm Kpler — a 50% drop . The waterway normally carries about a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply .
On Aug 8, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a sweeping set of conditions for reopening the strait. Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr said the US must:
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, stated on Aug 9 that no direct negotiations are ongoing between Tehran and Washington, and that intermediaries are still trying to find a way to resume talks . Both sides are laying out increasingly expansive demands rather than converging . The earlier June memorandum of understanding that paused hostilities has effectively collapsed .
On Aug 13, the US said it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely" and vowed to ratchet up economic pressure as the ceasefire deadline approaches . On Aug 14, the US warned it would step up economic pressure further after the two latest ship attacks . Previous rounds of coercion included: revoking Iran's oil sales license (July 7) ; launching hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for ship attacks ; and Trump demanding compensation from Iran for deaths linked to the conflict .
Brent crude settled at $88.52/barrel on Aug 14, up $1.45 (1.67%) on the day, with WTI at $85.38/barrel . The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the Hormuz disruption . US gasoline prices are rising as reduced crude shipments through Hormuz pressure domestic refineries; Trump has warned drivers to brace for higher costs . Oil briefly traded above $90/barrel in mid-July when traffic nearly halted .
Diplomatic sources describe the talks as not developing into an agreement or even a memorandum of understanding at this stage, with Iran's conflicting demands leaving a deal out of reach . Analysts note that Iran has effectively frontloaded all its key demands (withdrawal of US threat, financial relief, and Iranian management of the strait) while deferring discussion of its nuclear program — a non-starter for the Trump administration . The risk of a prolonged stalemate is high. With no direct US-Iran talks underway, the Oman-mediated channel appears insufficient to close the gap, and both sides are hardening their positions .