Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Ceasefire Expires, Ship Attacks Intensify, and Oil Prices Surge

The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire Monday with no renewal deal in sight, and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified sharply in the past week. The standoff has now led to a near halt in shipping through one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, driven by fresh attacks, maximalist demands from Tehran, and a hardening of positions on both sides. Here is the full picture based on the latest reporting.

Attacks on Vessels and Accusations

At least two more ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, Aug 13, according to the UAE, which said Iran struck the vessels . On Aug 11, the US and Yemen's Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman . These latest incidents follow earlier waves of violence: three tankers were hit by projectiles in early July, prompting US strikes and the revocation of Iran's oil license ; an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship in late June was met by US retaliatory strikes ; and Iran seized two ships in April .

The accusations are flying. The UAE directly blames Iran for the latest missile attacks . Iran says the strait will remain closed to unauthorized vessels, barring transit by US and Israeli ships, and insists Washington must accept its conditions before shipping can resume . The US, for its part, says it is in "total control" of the waterway — a claim Iran angrily denies .

Shipping Traffic Near Standstill

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz "appeared to grind to a near standstill" on Friday, Aug 14, after the latest attacks and new US threats . Earlier in July, just 25 ships passed through the strait in a single day (down from 49 the previous day), according to maritime data firm Kpler — a 50% drop . The waterway normally carries about a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply .

Deadlocked Negotiations and Iran's Expanded Demands

On Aug 8, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a sweeping set of conditions for reopening the strait. Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr said the US must:

• Permanently end the war with Iran and its allies
• Lift the US naval blockade
• Drop all sanctions
• Withdraw troops from around the country
• "Correct its behavior" and never threaten Iran again

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, stated on Aug 9 that no direct negotiations are ongoing between Tehran and Washington, and that intermediaries are still trying to find a way to resume talks . Both sides are laying out increasingly expansive demands rather than converging . The earlier June memorandum of understanding that paused hostilities has effectively collapsed .

US Economic and Military Coercion

On Aug 13, the US said it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely" and vowed to ratchet up economic pressure as the ceasefire deadline approaches . On Aug 14, the US warned it would step up economic pressure further after the two latest ship attacks . Previous rounds of coercion included: revoking Iran's oil sales license (July 7) ; launching hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for ship attacks ; and Trump demanding compensation from Iran for deaths linked to the conflict .

Oil and Gasoline Prices

Brent crude settled at $88.52/barrel on Aug 14, up $1.45 (1.67%) on the day, with WTI at $85.38/barrel . The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the Hormuz disruption . US gasoline prices are rising as reduced crude shipments through Hormuz pressure domestic refineries; Trump has warned drivers to brace for higher costs . Oil briefly traded above $90/barrel in mid-July when traffic nearly halted .

Expert Assessments

Diplomatic sources describe the talks as not developing into an agreement or even a memorandum of understanding at this stage, with Iran's conflicting demands leaving a deal out of reach . Analysts note that Iran has effectively frontloaded all its key demands (withdrawal of US threat, financial relief, and Iranian management of the strait) while deferring discussion of its nuclear program — a non-starter for the Trump administration . The risk of a prolonged stalemate is high. With no direct US-Iran talks underway, the Oman-mediated channel appears insufficient to close the gap, and both sides are hardening their positions .