The 2026–2027 El Niño Is Now the Strongest Ever Recorded: What the Forecasts and Global Models Show

Key indicators:

• Niño3.4 index: +1.94 °C for the week ending July 26, 2026 — well above the +0.8 °C El Niño threshold and warming by ~0.5 °C in a fortnight . BoM's ACCESS-S model had forecast the index could reach an extraordinary +2.9 °C by October .
• Southern Oscillation Index (SOI): at -29.1, reflecting a strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean system.
• The "very strong" El Niño threshold was crossed in early August 2026 for the first time in over a decade .

Forecast Trajectory

The event is expected to peak in late 2026 and persist into early 2027 . The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects it will dominate global climate patterns through August–October 2026 and beyond . The EU's Joint Research Centre, using Copernicus Climate Change Service data, calls it "virtually certain" to become a very strong to unprecedented event .

Pooling forecasts from 14 different seasonal forecast models (667 ensemble members), the consensus peak forecast for the Niño3.4 index is around +3.6°C — almost 1°C above the previous record over the past 149 years .

Projected Global Consequences

Record-breaking global surface temperatures
The El Niño heat surge on top of human-caused warming is expected to make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded . UN officials warn it will "add fuel to a planet already on fire" . Carbon Brief notes that while 2026 has a 35% chance of being the warmest year on record, 2027 is now the most likely record year .

Extreme weather across continents

• Africa: Severe drought in southern and eastern regions, with flooding risks in the Horn of Africa .
• California / western US: Elevated likelihood of atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation events.
• Southeast Asia and Australia: Widespread drought, heatwaves, and elevated bushfire risk . The BoM forecasts below-average rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia through spring 2026 .
• South America: Flooding along the west coast, drought in the Amazon.

Risks to food and energy systems
The EU Joint Research Centre analysis warns of major disruptions to agricultural production and energy infrastructure globally . The WMO and UN agencies have urged early humanitarian action, with the WMO saying the event will cause "significant shifts in rainfall patterns" . ReliefWeb's thematic report identifies dry conditions across Asia-Pacific, the Caribbean, Central Asia, East and Southern Africa, and Southwest Asia for July–December 2026 .

Warnings from organizations

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Warned El Niño will "intensify rapidly" and dominate global weather into early 2027 . The WMO projects above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas.
• United Nations: Officials described the situation as "adding fuel to a planet already on fire" and called for urgent preparedness .
• World Economic Forum / ILO: Broader warnings about cascading risks to labor productivity, food security, and economic stability (referenced across multiple impact analyses).

Paleoclimate context
Nature reported researchers saying this El Niño could be the largest in at least 150 years of instrumental records . Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said it "may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin" . Some meteorologists have suggested, based on paleoclimate proxy data, that the event may be the most extreme in 500 to 1,000 years, though this framing relies on reconstructions rather than direct measurements.

Key caveat: While "strongest since 1950" and "largest in at least 150 years" are well-supported by instrumental records, claims about 500–1,000 year extremes depend on paleoclimate estimates with wider uncertainty margins. The core forecast — a record-shattering event with severe global humanitarian consequences — is consistent across the WMO, BoM, EU JRC, and multiple academic researchers .